Why French politics is in chaos

Why French politics is in chaos

France has a major case of déjà vu, with yet another Prime Minister resigning last week after failing to get the country’s budget passed in a divided parliament. It’s become a familiar story to the French - but this time there’s a twist: on Friday, the same PM, Sébastien Lecornu, was reappointed to the job by President Emmanuel Macron. The country is facing massive national debt and a budget deficit, and this latest mess has added to mounting pressure on Macron to resign…  So in this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll explain:

• how the French system of government works

• and why it’s in turmoil…

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French politics have been in the news a lot - what do I need to know?
France is a major player in world politics. It’s one of the countries with a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, and it’s the third-largest economy in Europe. But its domestic politics is in a state.

What’s going on?
Last week, PM Sébastien Lecornu resigned after only 27 days in the role, only to be reappointed 4 days later by President Emmanuel Macron… And even though he’s stayed in the job, Lecornu is the fifth PM the country’s had in 2 years…

Why does France keep churning through Prime Ministers? 
The country’s parliament is divided and refusing to compromise to get key legislation - like next year’s budget - passed… We’ll get into some of the challenges the country is facing in a moment, but first up, it might be helpful to explain how France’s system of government works, because it’s quite different from what we have here in Oz. 

How does it work?
France has what’s called a semi-presidential system, which means it has both a President and a Prime Minister, and they share power. 

How do the roles of President and PM differ?
So, the President is the head of state - they’re in charge of foreign policy, national security, enacting legislation, and they also appoint the PM… The PM is responsible for the country’s domestic affairs - things like the economy, education, health and social policies, they form a cabinet of ministers and deal directly with the parliament. 

Tell me about the parliament…
It’s made up of the National Assembly (that’s the lower house) and the Senate. Members of the National Assembly are elected every 5 years, unless the government is dissolved early by the President. You might remember that exact situation played out last year in June when Macron called a snap election.

How is the President elected?
Political parties choose a candidate, and the country goes to the polls to elect which one they want. Presidents have a 5-year term, with a maximum of 2 terms - Macron is in his second term, so he can’t run again when the next one rolls around in 2027… 

You also mentioned the Senate?
It’s known as the upper house. Senators represent regions, and they’re elected by local officials. They can vote on laws, they serve 6-year terms, and half are replaced every 3 years.

Got it… Are the President and the PM politically aligned?
That’s generally the case, and it is at the moment. And usually the President chooses the PM from the largest group or bloc voted into the parliament. But that’s where the trouble starts - Lecornu is not from the largest bloc, and he’s trying to push through policies that are very unpopular. 

How does that affect things?
A big factor in the system is that the PM has to have the support of the National Assembly. And if the National Assembly doesn’t have faith in the government, it can pass a vote of no confidence - and that’s been happening quite a lot lately… 

What’s the make-up of the National Assembly right now…?
It has 577 seats, and the government needs a majority of 289 to pass laws easily. But no one party has a majority to be able to do that. It’s what’s called a hung parliament.

What’s the split?
It’s broadly divided into 3 main camps - on the left is the New Popular Front (an alliance between parties including the Greens, socialists and centre-left). In the centre is the Ensemble Coalition between Macron’s Renaissance party and the centre-right, and then there’s the far-right National Rally led by Marine Le Pen. It’s a strongly nationalist, anti-immigration party, and Le Pen is one of Macron’s biggest political rivals… The division has led to a parliamentary stand-off and a lot of legislation going nowhere.

So, it’s in a deadlock?
Yep… We mentioned the snap election Macron called last year - that was to try to win back a majority in parliament. Just before it, there was a big swing in France to the right in the European Parliamentary elections, and Macron hoped that would shock and scare people back to a more centrist vote. So he took a gamble - or “bet the farm” as some commentators said at the time - and called a vote. 

What happened?
It backfired spectacularly - the result was another hung parliament, with even more seats being won by the far-right. Analysts predicted then that if it panned out the way it did, Macron would become a ‘lame duck President’, meaning he’s in power, but achieving nothing because his party can’t push through any legislation.

So, the optics aren’t great for Macron?
The instability isn’t a good look for him on the world stage. But so far, he’s refusing to deviate or compromise on his agenda by appointing a PM from another bloc who might be able to make some headway.

So, what’s at the heart of the problem?
It boils down to money… France’s finances are in bad shape. The country’s debt is about 114% of its GDP (and we know what that is and why it matters from our last Ask the Squiz ep…). Last year, its GDP was around $4.8 trillion dollars - so we’re talking big money. We mentioned it’s got the third-biggest economy - it’s also got the third-highest debt in the European Union, behind Greece and Italy. And this year, its budget deficit - which is how much more the government spends than it earns - is expected to hit 5.4% of its GDP.

So the PM wants to rein that in…?
Yep… Lecornu and his predecessors have been trying to do that through what’s known as an ‘austerity budget’ - which involves cutting millions of dollars in spending and possibly raising taxes at the same time… 

What’s behind the financial blowout?
Public spending - mostly on welfare, pensions, and healthcare. France has generous social supports in place, but they’re becoming very expensive to fund as the population ages… Officials did try one measure to address that in 2023 - they raised the retirement age from 62 to 64. 

How did that go down?
Not well… People went on strike and protested about it for months. And, as we said, there are more of those proposals to cut public spending in the budget for next year, as well as tax hikes, and because they’re so unpopular, it’s proving difficult to get passed in parliament. 

What’s the roadblock?
A big one is that the left wants to introduce a wealth tax on the richest people in the country, and that’s not something the conservatives are willing to agree to - and the proposed cuts to the pension are deeply unpopular on both sides. Basically, the left and the right put their ideological differences aside to band together to oppose Macron’s ‘parade of PMs’ (that’s what they’ve been described as in French media)… 

Why can’t they just compromise?
One thing that’s come up in analysis pieces about the way the French govern is that they’re not used to governing in coalitions like Germany or the Netherlands. But it’s been suggested that Macron needs to get on board with that… There was speculation late last week that he might appoint a PM from the left. And, in forming an alliance of sorts, he’d gain the numbers he needs to push through the budget. 

But that didn’t happen…?
No… Instead, he convinced Lecornu to give it another go. Lecornu’s done that, but he doesn’t sound too psyched about it. He wrote in a post on X that he’s accepted the role “out of duty” to France, and that he’d “do everything possible” to deliver a budget by the end of the year. 

What’s his plan?
One thing he has done differently this time is to lay down 4 conditions in choosing a new cabinet… They include that anyone joining it has to declare that they’ll park their political ambitions and won’t run for President in 2027 to make sure they’re focused on the job rather than political point-scoring, and that they won’t “shirk” responsibility for fixing France’s finances. But it could be easier said than done, given he’s likely to face yet another vote of confidence in the National Assembly very soon. 

Why is that?
The reaction to his reappointment by Macron has been scathing from both sides of politics. Far-right National Rally party President Jordan Bardella (he’s Le Pen’s 30yo protégé) called the reappointment a "bad joke" and said his party would immediately try to vote out the new cabinet. It’s worth noting that they’re gunning for another election because they’re ahead in the polls… 

What has the left said?
Left-leaning MP Clemence Guette, who’s also the Deputy of the National Assembly, wrote on X that her party would go a step further and put forward a motion to impeach Macron. She said, “It is time to put an end to this bad comedy”.

So Macron’s navigating some choppy political waters?
He sure is… On top of everything, his approval rating has tanked - reports say it was at a record low of 14% last week.

What are the polls saying?
A national poll by the credible Elabe institute last week showed that nearly half of French people blame the President for the current mess, and 51% of them believe that his resignation could break the stalemate. And while this all plays out, the French economy - one of the largest in the world - is on shaky ground…

How so?
While the country battles to contain its high debt, the head of its central bank has weighed in to warn that this latest bout of political turmoil will set the economy back even further. It’s forecasting growth this year of 0.7%, but its boss, François Villeroy de Galhau, says the uncertainty surrounding the chaos has cost the country an estimated 0.2% of extra growth… And out of it all, public pressure is building on Macron to resign before the 2027 Presidential election… 

Could that happen?
Resigning is something Macron has previously said he won’t do. He says he won’t be held responsible for the actions of his political opponents in blocking important legislation, and that he was elected to office by the French people and he’ll "honour their trust...until the very last second” of his term.

So what’s next?
Insert shrugging emoji… But analysts say one thing is for sure - the French people are getting tired of their government going around in circles.

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Onto our Recommendations

Reading: This article by the BBC dives a bit deeper into the situation the French government finds itself in and what could come next…

Reading: This explainer from CNN on the state of the French economy and why it’s in a mess…

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