A peace plan unpacked

Unpacking the latest peace plan for Gaza

It’s been 2 years since the terror group Hamas launched the 7 October attacks on Israel, triggering the war in Gaza that has taken a devastating toll on both Israelis and Palestinians. There have been many attempts to bring the conflict to an end, and there’s another one on the table, put forward by the US and Israel last week. So in this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll get you across:

• what’s in that plan

• where the war is up to

• and what’s next…

Prefer to listen or watch?

Listen to Andrew Williams and Larissa Moore cover this topic in this Squiz Shortcut podcast episode, or check it out on YouTube - and hit subscribe while you’re at it.

Listen time: 12 minutes

Squiz the Shortcut

There have been a lot of different deals floated to bring the war in Gaza to an end. Why is this one different?
This one is gaining attention because it’s been put forward by US President Donald Trump with Israel’s agreement and the backing of key Arab states - and he’s told negotiators working on the deal to “move fast” to get it done. Reports say he’s put pressure on both sides to come to the negotiating table, and he’s warned Hamas that if they don’t sign, he’ll give his full backing to Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to “finish the job” of destroying the group.

And it’s timely… 
Yes… Today marks a grim anniversary; it’s been 2 years since the 7 October terror attacks when Hamas militants crossed the border from Gaza into Israel, killing around 1,200 people in a series of brutal attacks on communities, a desert music festival, and army bases. And 251 people were taken hostage by those militants... Israel’s response was swift and fierce. Netanyahu declared war on Hamas, and the Israeli Defense Forces launched a military campaign aimed at destroying the terror group and regaining control of the Gaza Strip.

Two years on, what is the toll?
In a word… massive. Reports vary on the number of casualties, but the Gaza Health Authority says more than 67,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since the war began. The cities have been bombed to mostly rubble, and the infrastructure - the water, power, hospitals and schools - destroyed.

What is the humanitarian situation?
It’s in crisis… Millions of Palestinians have been displaced from their homes, and aid agencies say parts of Gaza are experiencing famine because of an Israeli blockade preventing them from accessing basic supplies. Israel denies that, but there have been reports of children dying of hunger and disease, leading to Israel being accused of genocide by a UN commission of inquiry last month.

And on the Israeli side?
On top of the victims of the 7 October attacks and the trauma of the hostages and their families, there have been losses of Israeli soldiers in the ongoing fighting. But the combat hasn’t spread into Israel, apart from a couple of missile attacks by Iran in support of Hamas that were largely intercepted… 

How many hostages are still in Gaza?
Hamas still holds 48 hostages - 20 of them are thought to be alive. On Friday, the group agreed to release all of them as part of Trump’s peace plan, pending further discussions. But before we get into how that plan will work, it's also worth noting that this war hasn’t just reshaped Gaza, it’s changed a lot of global attitudes… 

How so?
At the start, a lot of countries stood firmly behind Israel’s right to defend itself. But as the months have dragged on and conditions have worsened for Palestinian civilians caught in the conflict, international sympathy has shifted… As we recently saw at the UN General Assembly, most of the world now supports Palestinian statehood. 

How many countries support it?
More than 150 UN member countries have taken the step to recognise Palestine; this year Australia, the UK, France and Canada (Western allies of Israel) joined that list. And political analysts say that’s led to Israel being far more isolated diplomatically than it was in the early days of the war. 

Remind me where Israel sits on Palestinian statehood?
Netanyahu doesn’t support it; he says Israel “will not allow a terror state to be shoved down our throat”. As for its closest ally America, it’s open to Palestinian statehood, but says any plan for that would have to be worked through with Israel first… 

So what’s in Trump’s peace plan?
It’s being called the 20-point plan, and political analysts say it’s basically a new version of existing ceasefire proposals… It was written by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner (Ivanka’s husband). He’s been a key advisor to Trump in putting together a strategy for how Gaza might be rebuilt after the war. You might remember he was the one behind Trump’s pitch for Gaza to become the “Riviera of the Middle East”… But coming back to this current plan - it can be condensed down to 5 main points.

Let’s hear it…
The first, we’ve already covered. That’s the release of the hostages - both alive and dead - within 72 hours of the deal being accepted. And in return, Israel would turn over nearly 2,000 living Palestinian prisoners. And, for the remains of every Israeli hostage returned, Israel says it will release the remains of 15 Palestinians… 

Got it, what else?
Next up, Hamas has to disarm and play no role in governing Gaza. Instead, it would be governed by a body called the Palestinian Authority (PA). Its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, has praised the plan, saying “what matters now is an immediate ceasefire”.

What would happen to Hamas members?
Members of Hamas who surrender their weapons and agree to “peaceful coexistence” can get amnesty or safe passage out of Gaza. That point is a contentious one because in the past, Israel hasn’t been willing to let Hamas members go free. It’s been one of Netanyahu’s non-negotiable ‘red lines’. 

How would the transition to a PA government happen?
Another condition of the plan is that Israel would withdraw its troops from Gaza in phases as an international stabilisation force moves in. Eventually, that force would hand over to a new Palestinian police force… And speaking of new set-ups, Trump announced there would be a ‘Board of Peace’ established to oversee things until the PA government is ready to take over. 

Tell me more about that…
Its formal name will be the Gaza International Transitional Authority (GITA), and it would be chaired by Trump himself, with involvement from other world leaders. One of those he named was former British PM Tony Blair. 

Why Tony Blair?
He’s got some experience in this area, having served as Middle East envoy for the Quartet of international powers (the US, EU, Russia and the UN) which was created back in 2002. In that role, he was meant to bring economic development to the region and create conditions for a 2-state solution, but the general consensus - particularly from the PA - was that he was “useless, useless, useless”, so it doesn’t bode well for a seamless transition.

What’s the plan for rebuilding the strip?
Trump says there’d be a massive aid effort to rebuild major infrastructure, including water and power, hospitals, roads and schools… 

Does the peace plan address Palestinian statehood?
It talks about a pathway to an independent Palestinian state, but it’s vague and there’s no firm timeline… 

So, where do things stand?
Israel has accepted Trump’s plan and the ball is in Hamas’ court to get on board or “pay in hell” as Trump put it… On Friday, Hamas signalled they’d agreed to the hostage part of the deal and to hand over governance of Gaza to Palestinian technocrats - they’re officials chosen for office on the merit of their skills or background. Trump says he’s confident the deal will be signed and the hostages returned within days, but others - Netanyahu included - aren’t so optimistic.

Why is that?
Netanyahu doesn’t place any stock in Hamas’ partial agreement, saying it “means nothing”. And some analysts have pointed out that the plan contains a few conditions that Israel has previously said it wouldn’t accept. As we mentioned, one of those is that it wants Hamas destroyed rather than giving its members safe passage out of Gaza, and another is the establishment of a Palestinian state… Experts have also pointed out that the West Bank (which is an area occupied by Palestinians) isn’t mentioned in the peace plan at all. That could cause issues down the track because Palestinians see both Gaza and the West Bank as two parts of the same future state.

So why has Netanyahu agreed to it?
Analysts say the Israeli leader has agreed to the plan because he’s been under pressure from Trump, and he’s been able to get it past his right-wing cabinet because he’s got Trump’s backing to finish Hamas if they refuse or breach the agreement. 

And what’s the likelihood of Hamas accepting the rest of the terms?
The jury’s out there too as to whether the terror group will agree to conditions it’s objected to in the past, like total disarmament. It’s also previously asked for guarantees that Israel won’t keep operating in Gaza. So there’s still quite a few bridges to cross before this deal is done… 

So what’s next?
Political experts say the reality is that both sides may accept the plan in principle but then stall or undermine it in practice. Ultimately, its success or failure will come down to whether either side is genuinely ready to compromise, but as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsens and Trump’s patience runs low, the clock is ticking down for Hamas - and the remaining hostages…

Let your smile shine

Smiling is one of our favourite things to do, but it helps when your teeth are at their best. The Smilie Teeth Whitening Kit offers visible results from the first treatment without the hefty price tag, delivered straight to your door. It'll even lift long-lasting stains without causing your toothy-pegs pain. Find out more here.

Onto our Recommendations

Perusing: This article published in The Guardian gives a good overview of Trump’s 20-point plan and its likelihood of succeeding.

Reading: This analysis piece in The Conversation looks at how the war in Gaza has transformed the Middle East. 

Recent Shortcuts