Why are Japan and China in a row over Taiwan?

Why are Japan and China in a row over Taiwan?

Tensions between Japan and China have ramped up over Taiwan - an island off the coast of southeastern China that is a de facto independent country that China wants to "reunify" with its mainland. So in this Squiz Shortcut, we'll run you through:

• China's claim over Taiwan

• why Japan has weighed in

• and how it might affect us here in Australia…

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Listen to Larissa Moore and Claire Kimball cover this topic in this Squiz Shortcut podcast episode, or check it out on YouTube - and hit subscribe while you’re at it.

Listen time: 12 minutes

Squiz the Shortcut

Why do Japan and China have beef?
The 2 countries are having a pretty major falling out right now, and it's all because of Taiwan. It's being called the biggest diplomatic bust-up between them in decades.

How did it start?
It began with Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi. She's the first woman to hold the job, and she’s known for being hawkish on China. So on November 7, she was asked in parliament what Japan would do if China attacked Taiwan, and she said it would be a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan.

Is that language significant?
Yep… Under Japanese law, putting it in those terms could justify mobilising the military. Previous leaders like Shinzo Abe have said similar things, but that was after leaving office, or to local supporters. Takaichi said this as the sitting Prime Minister, in an official parliamentary session. That's a very different thing.

How did it go down?
Beijing did not like it one bit. China sees Taiwan as its territory, so other countries weighing in on defending it is a massive red line.

What has the response been?
It’s been swift and pretty intense. China suspended Japanese seafood imports, issued travel warnings telling citizens to avoid Japan, and postponed a couple of Japanese movie releases. And the travel warning is a big deal because Chinese tourists are huge for Japan's economy - there were nearly 7.5 million visitors between January and September this year. Some tour operators are now saying 70% of their bookings have been cancelled.

Why is Taiwan such a sensitive issue for China?
To understand why China cares so deeply about "reunification" as they call it, we have to explain a bit of the island’s history… So, to give you the very short version, Taiwan was part of China way back in the Qing dynasty in the 1600s, then Japan took control in the late 1800s. After World War II, Japan had to give it over to China as part of its surrender. So the Republic of China under Chiang Kai-shek took over. But then came the civil war…

What happened in the civil war?
The communists won… Mao Zedong established the People's Republic of China on the mainland in 1949, and Chiang Kai-shek's government retreated to Taiwan. So ever since, you've essentially had two Chinas - the communist one on the mainland and a separate government in Taiwan.

But Beijing has never accepted that?
Nope… President Xi Jinping talks about "reunification" constantly. He says he wants to keep it peaceful, but hasn't ruled out using force. The thing is, Taiwan has moved on significantly in those 76 years…

How has it changed?
For starters, it became a democracy in the 1990s. It has its own government, its own military, and a thriving economy. And polling consistently shows hardly anyone there actually wants to reunify with China - maybe 6-12%, depending on the survey. The vast majority of people want things to stay as they are. 

I’ve heard the US mentioned in this story… Where does it stand on the issue?
US President Donald Trump had a phone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping last week, and according to China's readout, Xi told Trump that Taiwan's "return to China" is an integral part of the post-war international order. In his own account of the call, though, Trump didn't mention Taiwan - but he did then call Takaichi the next day. 

What was the purpose of his call to the Japanese PM?
Publicly, he was very supportive. He called her "an extremely good friend", said she could call him any time, and confirmed close cooperation between the two countries. But according to the Wall Street Journal, Trump also privately suggested she soften her tone with China. He didn't pressure her to retract anything, but the message was clear…

What was the message?
He doesn't want this dispute messing up the trade truce he just secured with Xi. Lots of countries are in a balancing act when it comes to Taiwan, and the US is too. But Japan's not backing down. Their Defence Minister visited Yonaguni Island last weekend - that's Japan's westernmost point, only about 110 kilometres from Taiwan - and confirmed they're going ahead with plans to deploy missiles there.

What was China’s reaction to that?
China called that "extremely dangerous" and a deliberate provocation. And just to show how tense things are, Japan's been scrambling fighter jets because Chinese drones keep appearing near that same island. Taiwan's Premier Cho Jung-tai has also been speaking up…

What has he been saying?
He said last week that returning to China is "not an option" for Taiwan's 23 million people. He also said Taiwan is a fully sovereign and independent country. And this is where it gets tricky for countries like Australia… 

How so?
Most countries, including us, practice what's called ‘strategic ambiguity’ when it comes to Taiwan. That means we don't formally recognise Taiwan as independent, but we also don't accept China's right to take it by force. 

Strategic ambiguity… there’s a term
But it works - it's a diplomatic balancing act that's kept things stable for decades. The worry now though, is that this Japan-China dispute could destabilise that whole arrangement. And for Australia specifically, we're right in the middle of it…

Spell it out for me - what competing interests are we juggling?
Well, Japan is a key security partner, China's our biggest trading partner, and we have unofficial ties with Taiwan. If this escalates, we feel it.

So what happens next?
There’s a few things to note… Trump's visiting Beijing in April, and Xi has accepted an invitation to the White House later in 2026. Taiwan's going to be the elephant in the room at both of those meetings, so it's definitely something to keep an eye on…

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Onto our Recommendations

Reading: This piece in The Interpreter, published by The Lowy Institute, about how countries are maintaining relationships with Taiwan through soft diplomacy rather than official government channels…

Reading: This really simple guide by the BBC about the history between China and Taiwan that gives some helpful context to why China is pushing for reunification…

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