What are the Gulf States?

What are the Gulf States?

The effects of the war in the Middle East are being felt all around the world, but especially so in the Gulf States, which have come under direct attack from Iran because of their diplomatic ties to the US and Israel. The conflict has put them in a tricky position, testing their energy-reliant economies and their relatively new friendship with the West. So in this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll take you through:

• Who the Gulf States are

• Why they've come under fire

• And where their allegiance lies…

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Tell me about the Gulf States…
The term is used a lot in the news - and particularly in the past couple of weeks since the war in Iran began - and it refers to 6 countries that have coastline along the Persian Gulf in the Middle East. They’re Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. 

What’s it like in that part of the world?
It’s a unique area… They’re resource-rich, wealthy international business hubs that attract heaps of expats from all over the world (around 100,000 Aussies live/work in them, with a quarter of those in the UAE alone) and they’ve built a glamorous image of their cities via tourism campaigns that have been pushed by influencers; there’s a big dining scene there, heaps of big international sporting events, a high-end real estate market, and lots of big glass hotels and tall buildings - all in the middle of the desert. 

Are they politically aligned?
Broadly speaking, yes… They’ve formed a political and economic alliance called the Gulf Cooperation Council (the GCC) and it’s a powerful one - combined, they control around 33% of the world’s proven oil reserves, and they’re responsible for about 22% of global oil production. But that energy supply chain has been severely disrupted by the war in Iran. 

Just explain that a bit more…
Commercial shipping has all but closed in the Strait of Hormuz where oil tankers coming from their countries have to pass through because of attacks on the ships by Iran. Now, Iran is their neighbour. It has coastline along the Persian Gulf too, but it’s not part of the GCC, and it has some key ideological differences to the Gulf States…

What are they?
One of the biggest divides between them is their differing stances on US and Israel. The Gulf States have economic and security ties in place with the US and the West, but Iran’s regime has been staunchly anti-US, anti-Western, and, as far as Israel goes, Iran’s leadership has said it’s committed to its destruction. So, with that in mind, preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon was one of the driving reasons Israel and the US say they’ve launched their current military operations against it.

Remind me of who’s in charge now in Iran…
With the death of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the initial Israeli/US strikes on Iran’s capital of Tehran, the country now has a new Supreme Leader in Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamenei - but he’s said to be just as hard-line in his views as his father, and he’s believed to have been extremely influential behind the scenes in the regime before taking over. Iran is a theocracy, so Khamenei is not only their spiritual and political leader, he’s also in charge of their armed forces. 

I heard he was injured?
Reports say he was wounded early in the war - and he hasn’t been seen in public since being named as Supreme Leader. But in any case, soon after Israel and the US launched strikes on Iran, it struck back at nearby targets in all 6 of its Gulf state neighbours. It says those targets were restricted to US and Israeli military assets, but as reports from the region have shown, they’ve also hit civilian infrastructure. Major airports, hotels, ports and oil facilities have all been damaged…

Have people died in the attacks?
At least 6 people have died and around 120 were injured in the UAE by falling debris from aerial interceptions of missiles. They say they’ve shot down more than 1,700 Iranian missiles and drones since the war began. But while they’ve mostly been destroyed, the waves of missiles have disrupted Dubai International Airport, as well as the UAE’s major ports and its oil production. US military bases in Bahrain and Qatar have also come under fire, and even Oman, which recently hosted negotiations between the US and Iran to avoid the war, has had several of its ports and ships targeted by drone attacks. 

Why is Iran attacking its neighbours?
In short, because they see them as aligned with the US and Israel. We’ll dive deeper into that in a moment, but forging friendships with the Gulf States has been a major priority of the US and Israel for a while. The leaders from the Gulf States were the first that US President Donald Trump travelled to meet in his second term - and he came away with a raft of extremely lucrative investment agreements worth an estimated US$2 trillion. He also tied up a number of security agreements, which have come into focus in the past 2 weeks.

Tell me how the friendship between the Gulf States and the US began…
Towards the end of his first term as President in 2020, Trump acted as the conduit between Israel and several Arab nations in an agreement you might’ve heard of called the Abraham Accords.

Let’s assume I haven’t…
OK, well they’re essentially a series of peace deals that paved the way for friendlier relations between Israel and those nations by opening up opportunities for trade deals, boosting tourism, and sharing intelligence - particularly about their common rival, Iran. So it was a real vibe shift away from decades of conflict over religious differences and land disputes toward a future based on making money and regional stability. 

Got it… Who signed on?
As it stands, the signatories to the Abraham Accords are Israel, the UAE and Bahrain, along with Morocco and Sudan in Africa (Sudan is yet to be formalised but they’re onboard), and then there’s Kazakhstan which is the first non-Arab nation to join. Trump also has Syria in his sights, but analysts say the big fish he really wants to land is Saudi Arabia. 

Why does he want Saudi Arabia involved?
If they signed on, experts say Trump would be well on his way to uniting Israel and the Sunni Arab states into a formal, coordinated military and intelligence alliance to contain the threat of Iran. But there are some concessions the Saudis want in place…

What are they?
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants a "clear, irreversible path" to a Palestinian state as a baseline before he’ll consider it. That’s a tough one for Trump because Israel - the US’s main Middle Eastern ally - is firmly opposed to it. MBS is also after security guarantees from the US in a NATO-style treaty, and he wants America to help his country to develop a peaceful nuclear program for energy, science and medicine, as well as giving them access to high-tech military equipment, such as F-35 fighter jets…

So it’s not a small list…
Ah, no… But even before the Accords came into the picture, the Gulf States have become hugely wealthy and powerful in their own right because of the global reliance on oil and gas in their region. And, while strong, their economies have been thrown into chaos by the war in Iran - and their newly forged alliance with Israel and the US is being put to the test with every day that it continues.

Where do they sit when it comes to the war?
They’re officially taking a neutral position. Their governments have explicitly said they’re not allowing the US bases on their soil to be used as launchpads for attacks, and they’re of course defending the Iranian missiles and drones that are targeting their countries. Experts in Middle Eastern politics say the Gulf States have been trying to avoid this exact situation, positioning themselves as mediators in the region instead of having to openly declare sides, even though some of them have security arrangements in place with the US and Israel and have allowed US military bases on their land.

So, how will the war affect their new friendship with the US and Israel?
Experts say they’ve found themselves on the frontline of a war they didn’t start, which has put their livelihoods and their people at risk - so the newly forged friendship is being tested. Looping back around to why Iran is hitting out at its neighbours, analysts say it’s a strategic play to strike US military bases within its reach, and it knows that by attacking the international business and oil hubs of the Gulf States, it’ll throw the region and the global economy into chaos.

What impact would that have?
The theory is that if the Gulf States are under sustained attack, they’ll put pressure on the US to stop the war, but US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth says it’ll only drive them further towards the US and Israel…

So, what’s the fallout likely to be?
As we’re seeing, the squeeze on the energy supply chain caused by the war is hitting the US and its allies squarely in the hip pocket. Of course, those allies also include us here in Australia, where the effects are starting to bite in the form of high fuel prices and inflation. But Trump says it’s a small price to pay for neutralising the threat of Iran having a nuclear weapon, and he’s telling allies it’ll be over soon. That’s a very different story to the one coming from Iran’s leaders, who say they have no intention of backing down - so there’s no clear answer yet as to how long the conflict will last and what the end looks like.

Onto our Recommendations

Reading: This piece in The Conversation raises 4 key questions that might help clarify the future of the Middle East…

Listening: This podcast episode from The Guardian looks at whether the Gulf States will join the war…

Canberra, here they come

Squiz Kids has launched a competition, ‘PM For A Day’, and we’re asking Aussie kids to send in a video explaining the one thing they would do to make Australia a better place. The winning prize is a trip for 2 to Canberra for a private tour of Parliament House, a meeting with the Governor General Sam Mostyn - and maybe even a meeting with the (actual) PM Anthony Albanese himself…

It’s all part of The Squiz’s commitment to digital literacy and civics engagement among the next generation. To find out more about the competition and how to enter, go to Squiz Kids - but hurry, entries close on 13 March.

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