Iran after Khamenei

Iran after Khamenei

The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei marks a major moment with implications for not just the Middle East, but the world at large. So in this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll take a look at:

• Who he was

• His influence over Iran

• And what his demise might mean for the world more broadly

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What just happened?
Tensions between the US/Israel and Iran have been building for years over the regime’s nuclear program, but things came to a head on the weekend after the latest round of talks fell through. Following that, Israel and the US launched a series of coordinated military strikes on Iranian cities which began on Saturday night Oz time.

Why did the talks fail?
In short, Iran wouldn’t agree to America’s demands to abandon its nuclear ambitions (Iran says its nuclear program was for peaceful energy purposes, while the US believes it was to build a weapon). The fallout is ongoing, but one of the most significant outcomes so far has been the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei…

Tell me about him…
He was 86yo and had been Iran’s leader since 1989 when he took over from Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, another prominent figure in Iranian history… Khomeini founded the Islamic Republic in Iran in 1979, following the Islamic Revolution. That was the massive revolutionary uprising that led to the country’s leadership changing from a monarchy to a theocratic - read, religious - political system with the Islamic faith at its centre.

What was Khameini’s childhood like?
He was born into a religious family in Mashhad, in Iran’s northeast - a part of Iran that was firmly against the ruling Shahs, who were allied with the West. Khamenei was a student of Khomeini before the latter was exiled to Iraq in the 1960s because of his outspoken views on the ruling Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s modernisation program for the country… And while that was going on, Khamenei continued his mentor’s resistance work.

What happened after the revolution?
Once the Shah was overthrown, Khamenei’s loyalty to his previous leader paid off. He was made a key part of the new government and he even served as Iran’s President in the 1980s… But analysts say an attempt on his life in 1981 when a bomb hidden in a tape recorder went off during a speech led to him being paranoid about his safety and intent on building up the country’s military.

What was he like as a leader?
Experts reckon he was a very cunning and controlling leader who consistently knocked back more reformist, pro-West politicians to keep his conservative, hardline government intact. One way he maintained such a tough regime was by controlling the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (the IRGC) - a powerful branch of the Iranian armed forces that answered only to him as Supreme Leader. 

Just explain that a bit more…
The IRGC is a huge military organisation in Iran. It’s a multi-service force of around 190,000 active personnel working across divisions including internal security police to carry out surveillance on the population and crack down on dissent. It also has air and sea warfare sections, and a foreign operations division from which it funds and arms the Axis of Resistance.

What’s the Axis of Resistance?
It’s the name given to the group of proxy terror organisations acting on behalf of Iran including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza. Experts say it’s how Iran was able to wage an indirect war with Israel and sow discord in other countries like ours. You might remember that last year, Australia expelled the Iranian ambassador and designated the IRGC as a terror organisation after discovering it was behind 2 antisemitic attacks on our soil.

Was Khamenei liked among his own people?
Reports say he was a brutal leader and took a hardline with anyone questioning the regime. As such, analysts say Iran is deeply divided into people who feared Khameinei and those who were ideologically devoted to him. His death was celebrated by many Iranians around the world, including here in Australia. But even so, there were some who revered and respected him.

What happens now that Khamenei is gone?
The next Supreme Leader will be chosen by the Assembly of Experts, a group of 88 senior Shiite clerics who are experts in Islamic law. Until then, an Interim Leadership Council has taken over temporary duties. And the process mightn’t take long… Last time it happened in 1989, Khamenei was elevated to Ayatollah within 24 hours of his predecessor Khomeini's death.

So who’s in the mix to replace him?
One of the frontrunners is the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani. He’s seen as the de facto leader of Iran behind the scenes... The New York Times reported that he could potentially strike a deal with the US now that Khamenei is gone, and that it may be something Iranians are open to after months of economic instability and unrest. But Larijani has since knocked that back, saying that “We will not negotiate with the United States”. Nonetheless, the US is pressing for regime change from within. 

What does that mean?
They’re calling for the Iranian people to rise up and take over, but that could be easier said than done. Reports say that, even while many Iranians were celebrating Khamenei’s death in the streets, the Basij, the million-strong volunteer militia force aligned with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, have been mobilised. Experts say the recent hardline taken by authorities with protesters shows that any domestic unrest “will be met with an iron fist”. And some say there’s also a possibility that new leadership could take the country in an even more radical direction. 

How likely is that?
We can’t say for sure. The Interim Leadership Council members are made up of Iran’s Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, senior cleric Alireza Arafi and President Masoud Pezeshkian. The first 2 are said to be hardliners, while Pezeshkian is considered more moderate. But the threat of backlash against the US and Israel is real, and even Pezeshkian has vowed revenge, saying: “The Islamic Republic of Iran considers it its legitimate duty and right to avenge the perpetrators and masterminds of this historic crime.”

So, what’s next?
The situation is still developing - and Trump says the war could last for at least a month… For us in Australia, experts say we’re in for higher petrol prices and possibly more interest rate pain due to effects on inflation following on from increases to freight/transport costs of goods. And thousands of Aussies have had their travel plans thrown into chaos due to airports closing across the Middle East… But as for where things will land for the Iranian people, that’s a case of wait and see…

Onto our Recommendations

Reading: This article from the ABC details some of the people being touted as possible replacements for Supreme Leader.

Listening: This interview with AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver where he discusses what impacts the conflict might have on us here in Australia

Listening: If you’ve got younger Aussies in your life who have questions about what’s happening in Iran, the team at Squiz Kids have done up an ‘Iran explainer’ podcast to help. It’s all about giving young listeners the tools, vocabulary and emotional reassurance they need to process complex world events. You can find it here…

Canberra, here they come

Squiz Kids has launched a competition, ‘PM For A Day’, and we’re asking Aussie kids to send in a video explaining the one thing they would do to make Australia a better place. The winning prize is a trip for 2 to Canberra for a private tour of Parliament House, a meeting with the Governor General Sam Mostyn - and maybe even a meeting with the (actual) PM Anthony Albanese himself…

It’s all part of The Squiz’s commitment to digital literacy and civics engagement among the next generation. To find out more about the competition and how to enter, go to Squiz Kids - but hurry, entries close on 13 March.

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