What’s at stake in Farrer

What’s at stake in Farrer

You’ll be hearing the word Farrer a lot in the Aussie news media for the next few weeks - it’s the site of a federal by-election on 9 May. But the stakes for this by-election are unusually high - particularly on the conservative side of politics. With One Nation riding high in the polls, they’re a genuine chance to win a lower house seat that’s only ever been held by the Liberal or National parties. So on this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll tell you:

• where Farrer is and what it’s like

• who the leading contenders to win the seat are

• and why it’ll be such a focus over the next month

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Squiz the Shortcut

First up, what’s a by-election?
It’s a special election held when a sitting member in the House of Representatives - the lower house - leaves their seat for whatever reason. That can happen for a few reasons. It could be anything from resignation, to death, or disgrace, but the key point is that voters in that electorate need to choose a new representative in parliament.

Why is Farrer having one now?
You might remember that former Coalition leader Sussan Ley - the member for Farrer - resigned from federal politics in February after she lost the leadership of the Liberals to Angus Taylor. The people of Farrer need to choose a replacement, and so there’ll be a by-election (a kind of mini election) to decide who that will be.  

Why can’t the party simply replace her if they hold the seat?
Great question… It’s because our Constitution says that the members of the lower house must be directly chosen by the people. It’s different to the Senate, where parties can pick a replacement.

Where exactly is Farrer?
For anyone who hasn’t visited Farrer (Squiz founder Claire’s home stomping ground), it’s a huge regional seat that covers the south-west of New South Wales, bordering both Victoria and South Australia. For context, Ley’s a pilot, and she used to fly across it to get around…

What are some towns in it that I might know?
It includes centres like Albury and Griffith, as well as towns like Deniliquin (home of the Deni Ute Muster), Leeton, and Holbrook (known as ‘submarine town’ due to the 90m sub HMAS Otway, sitting in Germanton Park, 250km from the ocean. Why…? You can read more about that here…).  

What are some of the issues that come up in Farrer?
Water is a big one. The electorate spans large parts of the Murray and Murrumbidgee rivers, so irrigation and river management are constant concerns. There are a lot of irrigators living there, and it’s an issue that almost every candidate talks about on their websites. It’s also a region that’s highly dependent on migrant workers, which makes immigration - and how that’s handled - a big deal too.

What else comes up?
Other big issues are health and childcare, which some locals have said is way short of the levels it needs to be at. One mother who spoke to the ABC said that the local childcare centre in Deniliquin has 250 kids in a queue for 55 spots. But even that comes back to water - if there’s not enough water for farmers, they tend to leave the area - and if they leave, so do all the support services that service them - doctors, teachers, etc…

What’s the political history there?
These are all issues that are significant ongoing problems in regional Australia, and why there’s a frustration with the Liberal and National parties for not getting things done about it while they’ve been representing the electorate. With such a rural population, this is the sort of electorate that the Nationals would normally be very strong in. And before Sussan Ley came along, they were… 

Who held it before Ley?
Former Nationals leader Tim Fischer held the seat between 1984 and 2001. There’s a key bit to remember here - under the Coalition agreement, if a National party member holds a seat, the Liberals can’t run in the same seat. And vice-versa. So you might be wondering how Ley ended up with the seat in 2001 - it’s because Fischer retired. The exception to that rule is if a sitting member is leaving. So when Fischer retired, the Liberals were able to run for the seat. They won it, and they’ve held it ever since… 

So what’s different this time?
Now that Ley has retired, it’s open season once again, which means there will be a Liberal and National candidate. And as we said at the top, this is the kind of seat - rural and regional voters, farmers, graziers - that the Nats would expect to win. But they’re facing a major challenge this time around…

What’s that?
It’s coming from One Nation, which has been gaining momentum in the polls recently - picking up record support and putting itself in the box seat to pick up seats from the Coalition. It recently won 4 seats in South Australia’s state election. And that’s made this by-election a key test of whether the trend continues at a federal level.

What does that mean for the major parties?
It means the stakes are pretty high. Coalition leader Angus Taylor is under pressure to win back voters who’ve drifted to One Nation. He recently announced an immigration policy that is significantly tougher than what the party has had before; something closer to a One Nation policy. So this by-election will be the first real sign of whether he’s winning back support. And the Nationals have a new leader too in Matt Canavan - he’ll also be keen to hold ground in a traditionally rural stronghold. 

And for One Nation?
The stakes are high for them too… Leader Pauline Hanson won’t want to see her party’s vote go backwards in Farrer. But of course, it’s not the leaders who are running - it’s the candidates.

How many candidates are there?
There are 12 candidates, but we’ll just cover the major contenders… One thing to know is that the Labor party isn’t in contention - they’ve skipped running in a seat they were unlikely to win.

The Libs held the seat - who’s running for them?
The Liberal candidate is Raissa Butkowski. She’s a community lawyer and Albury Councillor, campaigning on cost of living and health infrastructure in the electorate.

Who’s her main competition?
Her major opponent on the conservative side of politics will be One Nation candidate, David Farley. He’s an agribusiness professional with a background in farming. The main focus of his website bio is “disciplined water and land management, and sustainable immigration”. According to most polls, he’s leading the primary vote.

Who else is in the mix?
On the conservative side is the Nationals’ candidate, Brad Robertson. He was a former Army Colonel and a long-time volunteer in the Albury area. His main focus is on health and water security. As you can see, if you read the websites of the main 3 candidates, you’ll see a lot of the same issues crop up. They’re all on the same side of politics, essentially going for the same bloc of voters. 

Anyone else to watch?
Yep… Independent Michelle Milthorpe. She’s a teacher from Jindera and an advocate for survivors of child sexual assault. She’s positioned more in the centre than on the progressive side of politics - and this isn’t her first rodeo. She came second on the primary vote in last year’s election, so keep an eye on her campaign. Looking at her website, again, she also has a lot of the same issues front and centre - healthcare, water management - but more of a focus on housing and aged care than the others. 

Who’s in the lead according to the polls?
Polls are scarce on the ground, but a survey done by the Australia Institute think tank found that One Nation is expected to win the bulk of the primary vote - 28.7%. Milthorpe is second on 23.3%, the Liberals 19.1% and the Nationals 5.2% - which is an alarming number for a party that held the seat for such a long time… The greens are also predicted to win about 3-4% of the vote in that poll - almost as much as the Nationals. 

How much should we take that into account?
It’s pretty much the only poll we could find, and it was conducted 6 weeks ago, so it’s not the best guide. But reading through what most of the experts and analysts are predicting, it looks like Farley - for One Nation - and Milthorpe are the 2 leading contenders. It’s all going to come down to preferences, but if one of those 2 does win the seat, it’ll be historic… 

What would the fallout of a result like that be?
It’d put extra pressure on Taylor and Canavan - and it could continue to reshape conservative politics in Australia. Regardless, it’ll give an early read on where voters are heading. That’s why the stakes - and interest - in this by-election is so high. 

Onto our Recommendations

Reading: This story from the ABC that canvassed voters in Farrer about what’s important to them heading into the by-election…

Also check out: This piece on Antony Green’s Election blog, which looks at the history of Farrer and how it’s voted in the past. 

The autumn city-swap

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