Squiz Shortcuts - Week 5 of the election campaign

Your Shortcut to… Week 5 of the election campaign

Can you believe it - polling day in the 2025 federal election is almost here... Over the past 5 weeks, we've taken you through the notable twists and turns of the campaign, and it's now time to wrap it up and make sense of it all. So in this Squiz Shortcut we’ll get you across:

• the policies and politics of this campaign,

• and what it will take to lock in our next government 

And in our last Ask the Squiz of the campaign, we're talking seats, snacks and (multiple) screens…

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Squiz the Shortcut

Let’s start with the policies 
The major parties have cumulatively announced around $120 billion in policies since the campaign kicked off, according to analysis by the Australian Financial Review. When you look at the media analytics of what has had the most mentions in this campaign, the cost of living and housing are right at the top. 

They are 2 very hot topics
And not new ones either. Housing has been a thing for many years, but the numbers show it’s more difficult right now to buy and rent a home, particularly for young people. And at the same time, people who own one don't want to see property values go down... 

Wasn’t that part of the drama with the housing policies?
That’s right - economists widely panned these policies, saying they were a sugar hit that would put money in the hands of buyers, and this would increase demand and, in turn, we’d see prices go up. 

So what do they reckon we need instead?
They said we need policies that deal with the supply of housing… That’s happening to some extent, but the big bucks are going towards assistance packages for first home buyers. 

Do we have anything new to address cozzie livs?
Well, the pandemic blew inflation sky high, and we're still battling to bring it down, but figures out this week show we’re getting there… On Wednesday, the Bureau of Stats released the latest inflation data that showed the key indicator is back in the target range. But as far as voters are concerned, there was an interesting moment in the Seven debate on Sunday night... 

Oh yeah - something about eggs…?
That’s right - PM Anthony Albanese and Coalition leader Peter Dutton were asked about the price of a dozen eggs. Dutton guessed about $4.20, but Albanese was closer with $7. The actual price is about $8.50. It’s probably not a big deal, but no doubt there were some people who saw this and thought “these guys don't get it”. 

And the policy side of that?
Labor is promising to once again offer a rebate on household and small business power bills of $150. There's a small tax cut over two stages from July next year, and they’re also pledging to cut the price of PBS-listed medicines, as well as reducing students' debts. 

How about the Coalition?
They’re offering a temporary 25c/L reduction on the price of fuel by temporarily halving the fuel excise for 12 months. There’s also tax relief for those earning less than $144,000 - and they've matched Labor on PBS medicines and the energy rebate. So there's stuff happening, and a lot of it is pricey. And of course, remember it's taxpayers who are footing the bill... 

Tell me about the polling
The latest polls have Labor slightly ahead of the Coalition at 52-48 on a 2-party preferred basis - that's been the case since the start of April. The other thing to note is that Albanese has improved in the polls on the question of who’s the 'better PM' against Dutton. 

But it’s not just about the major parties, right?
Exactly - a few pundits are saying that Labor and the Coalition are likely to win seats from each other in the mortgage belts of Sydney and Melbourne. But the thing that will decide who wins government will be the performance of the minor parties and the independents. 

So that means more Teals talk?
Yep, and last week, Simon Holmes à Court - the convenor of Climate 200, which is the main funding source for Teal candidates - spearheaded efforts to raise a quick $1 million to throw more support behind Monique Ryan in Kooyong, Zoe Daniel in Goldstein, Sophie Scamps in Mackellar and Kate Chaney in Curtin. 

How come they needed more cash?
Reports say they're being “outspent and outnumbered” and are at risk of losing their seats. They're all first-term MPs who beat moderate Liberals, so the Libs really want those seats back. Other reports say the Teals are looking pretty good, and could win even more seats this time - so that will be eagerly watched. 

And how are the Greens going?
They're defending a record 4 seats - one in Melbourne, where Greens leader Adam Bandt is from - and 3 in Brissie. Just like the Libs are going after those Teal seats, Labor is going after the Greens, so that's something to keep an eye on. The Greens say they have their sights on 2 other seats in Victoria, as well as one in each of New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia.

What’s been their focus throughout this campaign?
Cost of living, housing, and young people are all areas that the Greens have campaigned heavily on, with hugely expensive policies that the major parties say are just a fantasy... But it's really about leverage for the Greens. 

Why’s that?
They can't win government in their own right, so it's about what position they can put themselves in to negotiate on policies and legislation with a Labor Government, although Albanese continues to say he won’t do any deals with the Greens... 

So then the big question is - who’s going to win?
Dunno... But Sportsbet and TAB markets both favour Labor to form the next government, and with a majority. It’s interesting because until recently, polls had been pointing to a minority government because of the rise of the independents and minor parties. But whatever happens, we don't have long to find out.

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Ask the Squiz

From Jillian: Could you lay out the numbers in the House of Reps and what it's going to take to see a change of government?
Before this election, the Electoral Commission redrew some electorate boundaries and reduced the number of lower house seats by one to make 150. So 76 seats is a majority. Then, once you make someone the Speaker (who's meant to be non-partisan in the role), 75 is our number. 

As for the race, Labor enters the race with a notional 78 seats compared to the Coalition’s 57. What’s notional you ask? It's the result if the last election was run on the new electorate boundaries, and it means that the Coalition needs to win a net 18 seats to reach 75, while if Labor loses a net four seats, it will fall below that magic number. So, net 18 and net 4 - burn those numbers on your brain for Saturday night... 

From Carol: Can politicians change sides once they’re voted into parliament? And how does that affect the balance of power?
Yes is the short answer, and it can absolutely affect the balance of power, particularly if the government is in a minority. One recent example is from last year in Tassie’s Liberal Government - it lost a couple of MPs when they became independent. This was fine for a while, but over time they wouldn't guarantee their support, so the state had an early election to resolve things. 

And that could happen - say Albanese doesn't have the numbers to form a majority government but he's done deals to ensure he has support to govern and pass a budget, if one or more of his MPs leave the Labor Party and won’t offer the same support, it could see things fall over… That's the worst-case scenario, but it’s why party loyalty is important. And when people do peel away from the party they represented in the election, it's a big deal. 

From Evan: what will you be doing on election night?
It’s so boring - we'll be stocked up on snacks and watching the coverage on the TV with multiple screens (and group chats) going at once, all while monitoring the stats on the Electoral Commission website. There’s bound to be lots of messaging between us and friends who know their politics. Sounds exciting, huh! 

Should we keep Ask the Squiz going?

This time next week, the election will be done and dusted, but we’re of a mind to keep Ask the Squiz going, that is, if you’re keen for us to tackle broader topics…

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