Squiz Shortcuts - What happens in the conclave

Your Shortcut to… the conclave

Following the death of Pope Francis, the papal conclave - where Catholic cardinals gather to elect a new leader - will soon begin. It’s a ritual that’s highly secretive, and the outcome will be pivotal for the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics. So in this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll look at:

• what happens in the conclave

• who’s in the running to be the next pontiff

• and why the choice is important for the direction of the Church and the huge influence it has throughout the world 

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Squiz the Shortcut

Pope Francis’s death has been a huge deal. What will he best be remembered for?
He was known as the “people’s Pope” - a humble and charismatic leader who dialled down a lot of the pomp and ceremony that came with his position. He advocated for peace among world leaders, was outspoken on climate change, and created some waves when he apologised and asked for forgiveness on behalf of the Church to victims of sexual abuse.

So, a bit of a reformer… What other changes did he put in place?
One big legacy he’s left is in the College of Cardinals. He appointed 80% of the cardinals in place today from a wide range of countries, with the view that it was important that Church leaders reflect where Catholicism is prevalent around the world - which has changed quite a bit over the past few decades.

How so?
There’s been a drop off in Western countries, and a significant uptake throughout Africa, Asia and Latin America. So those populations will now be better represented by cardinals who will soon vote for Pope Francis’s successor in what’s called the conclave. 

What’s the conclave?
It’s an old and secretive voting process to elect the next Pope, which dates back to the 1200s. The word comes from the Latin for closed door, so there’s not a heap known about it - but we’ll get you across what we do know…

Intriguing… When will it begin?
It’s typically held 15-20 days after the funeral of the previous Pope. This one will begin on 7 May.

And what will happen?
To start with, cardinals from all over the world will travel to Rome - and just to explain, cardinals are senior Bishops of the Catholic Church and they’re appointed by the Pope to the College of Cardinals. There are currently 252 of them, and you can tell who they are because they wear red robes and skull caps, which is a sign of their willingness to shed their blood for the Pope and the Church. 

That’s quite a commitment…
Don’t worry, they haven’t had to do anything like that in modern times - mostly their role is to advise the Pope, run departments within the Vatican, and vote for the next Pope… But that said, only the ones under 80yo are eligible to vote.

So how many of them will actually vote?
This year, 135 cardinals are expected to vote. And they’ll do that inside the Sistine Chapel - that’s the one with the famous frescoes on the roof painted by Michelangelo... 

Nice digs… How does it all happen?
They’ll be locked inside the chapel each morning, where they’ll hold a maximum of 4 votes per day. And in case anyone was thinking of eavesdropping, there’s an electronic signal blocker set up to prevent that, and to make sure the cardinals have no contact with the outside world that could influence them.

How long will it go for?
They’ll carry on each day until they reach a decision by a two-thirds majority. Most conclaves finish within 2-3 days - since 1831 there hasn’t been a conclave that’s lasted for more than 4 days. And there are a couple of old rituals the cardinals adhere to while inside…

What are they?
One is that each vote is read out and threaded onto a piece of red string. Twice a day, the ballots are burnt - when this happens, another stove connected to the chapel’s chimney is lit, and the smoke coming out of that one lets the crowds waiting outside in Saint Peter’s Square know whether they’ve reached a decision. If they’ve failed to reach a majority, the smoke will be black, and if a new Pope has been chosen, the smoke will be white... 

How does the smoke get coloured?
They used to do this with different types of straw back in the day, but in modern times, they colour it by burning chemical pellets. 

Well that’s a fun fact… And people really wait outside for the decision?
Oh yeah - thousands of them. There’s often standing room only in Saint Peter’s Square, and the sight of white smoke is cause for great celebration.

Is there anything special or different about this papal conclave?
Yep… There’s a heightened interest in this one because it’s going to be the most ethnically diverse vote in the Church’s history, with cardinals from a variety of nationalities considered serious contenders to be the next Pope. 

Can only cardinals be elected as Popes?
This is another interesting fact - no. Church Canon, which is its law, says that any unmarried and baptised male Catholic, whether a priest or not, is eligible to be chosen as the Pope. But for anyone fitting the bill who’s about to brush up their CV, that hasn’t happened for over 600 years - since then, it’s just been cardinals. 

What influences their decision?
Because the cardinals are bound to secrecy, no one is really sure of what factors come into play, but religious experts who know a lot more about this than we do reckon that world events are a consideration. For example, this coming conclave is happening when long-running wars are being fought in the Middle East and Ukraine, there’s a lot of economic uncertainty, and some pretty big political shifts are going on - so they’ll be thinking about all of that as they cast their votes.

Got it. What about the Church’s numbers around the world - do they factor in?
It’s very likely that they do… Research into religions from this year shows that although the number of people who adhere to a faith worldwide is declining, there is still an overwhelming majority who do - 85% of people, in fact. 

Give me the breakdown
Sure… Of that group, 31% identify as Christian, followed by 24% as Muslim, 15% as Hindu, and around 16% don’t belong to a religion.

So, who are the favourites going into the conclave?
One of the leading contenders is the Secretary of State of Vatican City - his name is Cardinal Pietro Parolin. He was close to Pope Francis, as his second-in-charge, and he’s seen as a centrist with a broad appeal among the College of Cardinals. But some say he doesn’t have the same charisma that made Pope Francis such a popular leader…

OK, who else is being tipped?
Another frontrunner is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. Like Francis, he’s known for his commitment to social justice and the poor. He’s spoken out against human rights abuses in his home country - including the alleged killings of thousands of young drug offenders under former President Rodrigo Duterte. But some say his vocal political opinions could count against him. 

Got it. Are any other names being mentioned?
Plenty, but Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Cardinal Jaime Spengler of Brazil are 2 to listen out for. They both lead large Catholic communities in their countries, and their election would recognise the changing geographic and demographic spread of the Church. And we’ve got a cardinal in the mix too…

We do?
Yep… Australia’s own Cardinal Mykola Bychok will be part of the conclave. He’s a Ukrainian-Australian who’s a Bishop in Melbourne - but because he’s only been a Cardinal since last December, and at 45yo, he’s the youngest in the College, he’s considered to be an outside chance at best. Still, an Aussie Pope would be quite a story…

It sure would… So is there any way to predict the outcome?
Ultimately, it’s almost impossible to predict the outcome of a conclave - even Pope Francis wasn’t a frontrunner when he went into the conclave in 2013 as Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio and emerged as Pope. Only one thing’s for sure…

Death and taxes?
Well, besides them, whoever is chosen - whether he follows Francis' lead of adapting the Church to the modern world, or whether he adheres to more conservative traditions - he’ll have a hand in shaping the future of the Church and the huge influence it has in the world.

Onto our Recommendations

Watching: For a (fictional) inside look at the process of conclave, we recommend a watching the movie Conclave. It delves into the politicking that goes on behind the scenes, and it’ll have you on the edge of your seat. And, no spoilers, but there’s a big twist at the end. It’s streaming on Apple TV or Prime Video.

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