Squiz Shortcuts - The nuclear non-proliferation treaty

Your Shortcut to… The nuclear non-proliferation treaty

After the catastrophic destruction caused by nuclear weapons at the end of World War II, almost every country in the world signed onto an agreement called the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons which aims to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction. With nuclear weapons at the centre of the conflict between Israel and Iran, the agreement is back in focus… So, in this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll look at:

• how the treaty came about

• who is and isn’t signed onto it

• and how it works…

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Squiz the Shortcut

Why have nuclear weapons come up so much in the coverage of the Israel-Iran conflict?
It’s because Iran’s nuclear program has been a major source of contention in the recent conflict between the 2 countries. There’s been animosity between them for years, but it boiled over when Iran was recently found to have breached its obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

Explain the treaty for me?
It’s an international agreement between countries that’s aimed at preventing the proliferation - aka the rapid spread - of nuclear weapons and the technology to develop them. It also promotes disarmament, and peaceful uses for nuclear energy - so for things like power generation and medical purposes instead of warfare. 

How did the treaty come about?
It was developed following the devastation caused in 1945 when the US dropped 2 atomic bombs on Japanese soil - one on Hiroshima and one on Nagasaki, effectively bringing about the end of World War II. Most countries were keen to avoid a repeat of such a catastrophic attack, and so the treaty was formed. 

When was it put in place?
It was first opened for signatures in 1968, and 63 countries - including the US, UK and what was then the Soviet Union - signed on. It came into force in 1970, and it was extended indefinitely in 1995. It now includes 191 countries, and more countries are party to it than any other disarmament agreement worldwide.

How does it work?
There are certain conditions that signatories have to abide by. For those running nuclear programs, they include not transferring nuclear weapons or the technology and materials to make them to other countries. For non-nuclear countries, the conditions are that they not acquire or try to develop nuclear weapons. And all countries have to agree to safeguards and inspections by the global nuclear regulator/watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). 

What does the IAEA do?
It conducts regular inspections of countries’ nuclear facilities and ensures they’re safe and in keeping with their obligations under the NPT.  

Got it. So, who is and isn’t signed onto the treaty?
All of the 5 nuclear powers, meaning the countries who’d fired a nuclear weapon before 1967 (the US, Russia, the UK, France and China) have signed on. But there are some countries who are known to, or believed to have, nuclear weapons who haven’t. 

Which ones?
North Korea is one - it removed itself from the treaty after it was found to have violated the conditions in 2003 by testing nuclear weapons. But others who haven’t signed on are India, Pakistan, South Sudan and Israel. And while India, Pakistan, and North Korea have openly tested and declared that they have nuclear weapons, Israel has been ambiguous about whether it has them, neither confirming nor denying it.

What does that mean?
Despite Israel’s deliberate silence on the matter, reports say it’s widely known to have developed a nuclear program in the 1960s, and the international non-profit group the Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, as well as the Federation of American Scientists, estimate that it has at least 90 nuclear warheads and enough material to produce hundreds more. This has raised some questions about Israel’s claims that a nuclear-armed Iran posed a direct “threat to its existence” - which was a reason Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyau gave for launching strikes against it. 

Why does Israel view Iran as such a threat if it’s got its own nuclear weapons?
Israel still says Iran poses a legitimate threat because it’s a country whose hardline Islamic leaders have repeatedly said they want to destroy Israel - and they’ve acted on that threat by funding militia groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthi rebels in what they call the Axis of Resistance - which is dedicated to stopping the influence and power of Israel and the US in the Middle East.

Is Iran a signatory of the NPT?
Yes, but while it has been allowing IAEA inspectors into its sites, the IAEA says the access has been on a restricted basis. Iran’s recent lack of cooperation with inspectors culminated in the IAEA board of governors issuing a censure resolution - aka a formal statement of disapproval - against the Iranian regime on 12 June. It’s the first time that’s happened in nearly 2 decades. 

Can you explain that a bit more?
The IAEA’s Board of Governors said it wasn’t satisfied with the answers Iran supplied for why it was storing the volume of undeclared nuclear materials it had on hand. Because of that, the IAEA formally declared that it wasn’t able to say Iran’s nuclear program was for peaceful purposes only, which is what Iran’s claiming. But that censure came on top of additional information the IAEA already had.

What was that?
Iran was storing a large amount of uranium (which is needed to make nuclear energy) at a level of enrichment just below weapons-grade. Now this is all a bit technical, but it’s worth understanding what enrichment means…

My lab coat’s on, let’s go…
So, the first thing to know is that there are 2 types of uranium: there’s uranium-238, which is how most of it comes out of the ground (and when we say most, we mean 99.3% of it). The other 0.7% is uranium-235 - and that’s the type needed for nuclear weapons. Those numbers are about its weight, so uranium-235 is lighter than the 238 variety…

Got it. So, what does enrichment mean in this context?
Basically, it means increasing the amount of uranium-235, so the lighter sort, and removing the heavier sort… This isn’t an easy process. It’s done using something called a centrifuge, which one scientist described as a “giant salad spinner” that rotates thousands of times a minute, separating the 2 sorts of uranium by force. To use nuclear energy for generating electricity, uranium-235 is usually enriched to about 3 to 5%. But that’s not what Iran was found to be keeping.

What does it have?
Iran’s store of uranium was found to be enriched to 60%. Uranium is deemed weapons-grade when it’s enriched to 90% - but the reason why Israel was on high-alert about Iran’s supplies being kept at 60% is because the process to enrich it to weapons-grade from that point is much easier to do because there's less of the heavier sort to get rid of. Atomic experts are on record saying that, if Iran wanted to, it could’ve used the supplies it had to build as many as 9 nuclear bombs within 3 weeks. And after the censure, Iran announced plans to ramp up its program even more.

What was it planning?
Iran announced it would soon open another enrichment plant and install new and improved centrifuges. That was despite being in talks with the US about its nuclear activities. 

Remind me about those talks?
The US, who’s Israel’s closest ally, was trying to get Iran to agree to conditions like guaranteeing they wouldn’t further enrich their uranium in exchange for loosening sanctions. But they weren’t able to reach a deal, and Israel attacked Iran and now the US has joined Israel in that military action, striking Iran’s nuclear facilities on the weekend. 

What’s likely to happen next?
It’s a developing story, but now that America has joined Israel's military operation - and Iran has struck back by firing missiles at US airbases in Qatar and Iraq - there are fears Iran could leave the NPT altogether, and that would mean the insight the international community had into its nuclear activities would be closed off. Although, with a ceasefire now on the cards (at least according to US President Donald Trump), there’s some hope Iran will resume talks.

So, it’s a situation to watch…
Add it to the list.

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Reading: If you want to read more about how the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites went down on Sunday, this ABC explainer gives a good insight into the inner workings of the operation.

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