Squiz Shortcuts - The conflict between Israel and Iran

Your Shortcut to… The conflict between Israel and Iran

Long-simmering tensions between Israel and Iran have boiled over after Israel launched a major attack on Iran, targeting its military leaders, nuclear scientists, and energy infrastructure. Israel claims Iran is developing nuclear weapons - but Iran denies that, saying its nuclear program is solely for the purposes of clean energy. So in this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll look at:

• how things got to this point

• what’s happened so far

• and the potential global impacts…

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What’s going on between Israel and Iran?
Last Friday, Israel launched a series of targeted strikes on Iran that killed 78 people and injured around 200. It was called Operation Rising Lion and it involved 100 highly-targeted drones that killed at least 4 of the country’s top military leaders and a number of scientists heading up its nuclear program.

Hang on, isn’t Israel already fighting a war in Gaza?
Yep - that one’s against Hamas. It’s one of several militant Islamic groups in the Middle East backed financially and supplied with weapons by Iran. Some names of the other groups you might be familiar with are Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. And through them, Israel and Iran have been fighting a proxy war for years.

But it’s out in the open now?
Big time. Iran responded by firing a barrage of missiles back at Israel, and a number of them have managed to get through its Iron Dome defence system (which detects and shoots down incoming missiles). At least 24 Israelis have been killed - and the toll on both sides is rising as the strikes continue.

So, why has Israel attacked Iran now?
Israel’s ongoing war with Hamas and its brief but conclusive defeat of Hezbollah last year have left Iran in a significantly weakened position, and reports say that’s made it possible for Israel to launch this most recent attack, which Middle East political experts say had been building for a while…

Why is that?
Israeli leaders have strongly suspected for some time that Iran is on the cusp of developing nuclear weapons.

What led them to that suspicion?
A recent report by the global nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) showed that Iran has a stash of uranium that’s at 60% purity - that’s just below weapons-grade - and it’s storing an amount that analysts say could be turned into multiple bombs in under a week. And adding to that, last week the same authority declared that Iran was in breach of its international non-proliferation obligations… 

Please explain…?
Basically, it means Iran didn’t give a satisfactory explanation for why it was storing so many undeclared nuclear materials… 

What does Iran say about that?
Iran has repeatedly denied its nuclear program is being used for anything other than peaceful clean energy purposes. It says it’s expanded its program because it wants to build more nuclear reactors for power generation, adding to the one it has already, and it wants to keep aside more of its oil for exporting. But Israel and its Western allies don’t believe that… In the meantime, the US has been in the middle of the 2 sides, holding talks with Iran…

Why is the US involved?
The US is Israel’s closest western ally, and it’s been trying to hold off an attack by Israel by having Iran agree to abide by some conditions for its nuclear program in return for lifting sanctions… 

What sort of conditions?
The main one is that it agrees to curtail any further enrichment of its uranium stores so as not to weaponise them - but those talks haven’t been able to lock down a deal, even after US President Donald Trump imposed a deadline of 60 days…

When is that deadline up?
It was up last Thursday, and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu authorised his military to strike on Friday. He said Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs posed “a threat to Israel’s existence” and needed to be dismantled.  

What are ballistic missiles?
They’re long-range missiles launched by rockets that are propelled super-fast in an upward arc, then they fall unpowered to land. They’re much harder to intercept when launched in large numbers simultaneously, and can overwhelm air defence systems. 

Has Iran been using them?
Yes… Hundreds of those missiles - each containing a busload of explosives - have been raining down on Israel over the past 4 days. Most are being intercepted, but as we mentioned, some have gotten through. And Netanyahu says Iran has reached a level of missile production that could see it churn out 300 per month.

Are world leaders concerned about the conflict?
Most definitely… There are big concerns for global security and the knock-on effects of an oil shortage on the global economy.

What’s the risk to global security?
If the fighting extends to other countries, we could be looking at a much bigger and more dangerous war than one confined to the Middle East. The US, for one, has military bases in the region, and Trump said that if Iran attacks it “in any way, shape or form” America would strike back “with force”. 

And what about the possible impacts on the global economy?
Israel has struck a number of energy targets in Iran, including its central oil refinery. As a result, the price of oil has surged, and that’s already being reflected in petrol prices in Australia, where economists predict they could rise by up to $2.20 a litre. There are also fears that Iran could shut the major shipping lane of the Strait of Hormuz - it’s the entry to the Persian Gulf that 20% of the world’s oil passes through - which would further restrict supplies, and create a big economic headache…

How so?
Because fuel prices have a huge financial impact on businesses that rely on shipping to transport their products around the world… And adding to that headache is the chance that Houthi rebels in Yemen - who’ve been helping Iran over the weekend by firing missiles into Israel - could ramp up their attacks on western ships in the Red Sea, which would force those ships to find another way around…

Which would also add to fuel and shipping costs?
Exactly, and, like the rising oil prices, it’d have a knock-on effect on the world’s economy by contributing to inflation - just when we’d kinda got on top of things (in Australia at least)… No government wants that, and it’s why world leaders and the United Nations have called for both sides to stand down and return to diplomacy. And while - as of today - it looks like Iran is ready to negotiate, Israel isn’t showing any signs of backing down. Netanyahu has even flagged the possibility of a regime change in Iran…

How would that happen?
The Israeli leader says Operation Rising Lion stands to not only take out the nuclear threat Iran poses, but it’ll also give Iranians the chance to unite and possibly topple the conservative Islamic regime that’s been in power for 50 years… In a speech after the first strikes, he addressed the Iranian people directly, saying "The regime does not know what hit them, or what will hit them. It has never been weaker. This is your opportunity to stand up and let your voices be heard.”

So what’s the fallout?
Trump says he’ll attempt to bring about a ceasefire between the 2 sides, so it remains to be seen if he’s still got the Art of the Deal…

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Onto our Recommendations

Listening: The latest podcast ep from The Rest is Politics - Israel vs Iran: What happens next? is a good discussion of how the conflict could play out and what it could mean for the world…

Reading: This article in The Guardian gives a good overview of the conflict zones in maps, videos and satellite images.

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