Squiz Shortcuts - The Canadian Election

Your Shortcut to… The Canadian Election

Canada is about to go to the polls after its new PM, Mark Carney, called a snap election. Faced with a stagnant economy, cost of living issues and a trade war with the US, Canadians will decide who steers them through what looks like it’ll be a challenging time… In this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll get you across:

• the key issues going into the election

• who the candidates are

• and why many people around the world will be watching the results closely.

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Squiz the Shortcut

Another election…
Yep, we’re not the only ones in the thick of it. Canadians will go to the polls on 28 April. 

Hang on, didn’t Canada just get a new Prime Minister?
Yep. Mark Carney took over in March as the leader of the Liberal party (a centrist party) from Justin Trudeau, who was the PM for 9 years. Trudeau actually resigned in January but stayed on until a new leader was voted in.

That’s a long time in politics
It sure is - but while Trudeau left office never having lost an election, he’d been under increasing pressure over the country’s economy, as well as an unpopular carbon tax, and there was division within his own party over the threat of tariffs (import taxes) from the incoming US Trump administration.

The t-word strikes again
Big time. In mid-January, the Liberals were so on-the-nose with voters that they were trailing in opinion polls by 24 percentage points against their main rival, the Conservative party… 

What US tariffs were put in place against Canada?
To quickly recap, the Trump administration has imposed a 25% National Emergency tariff on Canadian imports aimed at stopping the flow of fentanyl and other illicit drugs coming into America. Trump’s argument is that he wants Canada to do more to stop the drug getting in over its border with the US, and as a financial penalty, he’s charging a tariff. And, as we’ve covered in previous Squiz Shortcuts, that tariff is also being charged on goods from Mexico and China, who Trump says are playing a part in the drug trade too.

Got it, are there any others?
Yep - there are separate ones for cars, aluminium and steel products, and also energy… 

How has Canada responded?
By imposing retaliatory tariffs on US goods coming into Canada - and that’s resulted in a trade war… 

Give me a quick explainer
When countries are in a trade war, they raise import taxes and other trade restrictions to protect their own businesses and economies. It's like a tit-for-tat game where countries try to damage each other's economies by making it more expensive or difficult to trade. 

Wait, aren’t the US and Canada friends?
They were, but unlike Australia where the tariffs will have a minor impact on our economy, Canada’s main trading partner is the US - so the tariffs are a big deal. 

Have there been words?
Yep. Canadians are famous for a few things - ice hockey and politeness among them. But they drew the line on staying polite when Trump said he’d crush Canada’s economy and that it’d soon be the 51st state of America. Those comments, along with the tariffs, saw Trudeau take a stand against Trump. 

Oh yeah? What did he say?
He called the tariffs “a very dumb thing to do” and he posted on social media after Canada beat the US in the National Ice Hockey League 4 Nations match: “You can’t take our country - and you can’t take our game.” 

How did that go down?
A lot of Canadians went from complaining about Trudeau to rallying behind him in a show of defiance against Trump. He still left office in March though, making way for Mark Carney, who’s continued to stand up to Trump.

Tell me about Carney
He’s a former central banker who’s proved he can head up organisations through major financial upheavals. He led Canada’s central bank through the pandemic and he also served as Governor of the Bank of England through Brexit, so he comes with some serious economic chops. He’s a first-time politician but he seemed to sense the mood among Canadians pretty quickly, and he called an early election to take advantage of what were - unexpectedly - some favourable poll results. 

So the polls turned around?
They sure did… Support for the Liberals under Carney has soared and the party is now leading the Conservatives by 7 percentage points. Political commentators are calling the turnaround “unprecedented” and they say it’s something no one would’ve predicted at the start of the year. 

So who is Carney up against?
There are 4 main parties in Canada’s election race, but we’ll start with the big 2. There are the Liberals led by Carney who we’ve mentioned, and there’s also the Conservative party, led by a career politician named Pierre Poilievre. 

What is Poilievre known for?
He served as a minister in the last Conservative government. He’s 45yo, and he’s held his seat since he was first elected to parliament at 25yo - which made him one of the youngest MPs in Canada’s history. He’s known for his sharp takedowns of his opponents, which, along with his youth, have earned him the nickname “Skippy”. It’s nothing to do with kangaroos but he could be needing a bit of a bounce back if he’s to become PM…. 

Got it. Who are the other parties?
The left-leaning New Democratic Party, and Bloc Québécois - which has a big presence in the populous province of Quebec… The Greens are also fielding some candidates, but polls show the race is going to come down to either the Conservatives or the Liberals.

What are the big issues?
The latest Ipsos poll shows that the main issue on Canadians’ minds is who is best to lead them in negotiations with Trump, followed by the economy and cost of living... 

And what are the parties’ positions?
Carney’s been talking a big game when it comes to opposing Trump but he acknowledged in the recent leaders’ debate that taking on the US (which has an economy 10 times the size of Canada’s) isn’t a fair fight, so he’s softened that approach. Instead of charging reciprocal dollar for dollar tariffs on US goods, he’s now talking about targeting specific items which will inflict the most pain on the US economy without hurting Canada. He’s also already moving to deepen ties with what he calls more “reliable allies” - particularly in Europe.

And what about the Conservatives? 
On the other side, Poilievre’s been campaigning for years on bringing about change - mainly that Trudeau and the Liberals’ unpopular carbon tax had to go - his slogan was even ‘axe the tax’. But one of the first things Carney did when he was voted leader of the Liberals was to axe that carbon tax himself, so Poilievre’s had to find a new point of difference quite quickly because, in the space of a month, both Trudeau and the tax have gone. 

What else does he have up his sleeve?
He’s saying he’s the right “tough guy” to stand up to Trump. His main promises are to cut taxes as a way to counter the US tariffs, he also wants to crack down on crime, and cut red tape when it comes to mining and energy. And he’s asking voters if they’re really prepared to elect the Liberal party for a fourth term - because under the Libs, he says Canadians have seen a big rise in their cost of living, in particular in house prices. 

Is that having any cut-through?
He’s in a tricky spot. Until the tariffs came in, he was seen as a “Trump Lite” candidate - and he’s now trying to distance himself from that label without alienating the sector of conservative voters that identify with Trump’s values. And while he could point the finger at the Liberals under Trudeau for poor economic management, with Carney at the helm, it’s a different ball game.

Because of his background in finance?
Bingo. Polls show 49% of Canadians reckon he’s the leader best able to steer the country through negotiations with Trump while growing the economy. And he’s already said that if he’s elected PM, he’ll enter trade talks with the US immediately. 

What do the polls show about Poilievre?
Despite Poilievre vowing to be “tough” with Trump, 42% of Canadians think he'd be the most likely leader to “roll over” and accept Trump’s demands, which isn’t something in his favour right now. 

So Donald Trump will have a big influence on the way people vote?
Yep… Political analysts say the “Trump factor” has never been more prevalent in an election outside of the US, and the result will be an indication of the way traditional allies of America are reacting to Trump's economic reforms - whether they’re prepared to work with them, or take a stand.

Onto our Recommendations

Reading: If you’re keen to dive in a little deeper, this BBC article gives a good rundown of who’s who in the Canadian election race.

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