Australia’s immigration debate

Australia’s immigration debate

Along with housing, immigration has become a major issue for voters around the country. Some experts say higher migration is putting the squeeze on housing and adding to the cost of living, while others point out that our economy relies on it to keep productivity and growth ticking along. With One Nation increasingly winning support for it’s hardline stance, it’s got the major parties under pressure. So in this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll get you across:

• The numbers involved in the debate

• What experts are saying

• And where the major parties sit…

🙋🏻‍♀️ This newsletter was written by Larissa Huntington and Sophie Felice

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Squiz the Shortcut

Before we dive in, let’s start with what immigration actually is…
Essentially, it’s the process where people move from their home country to a new country to live. People move to Australia for a variety of reasons, but the main ones involve the opportunity for better work and pay, to be with family who’ve moved here, or because it’s a safer place to live than where they were born…

Got it… What’s the difference between a migrant and an immigrant?
A migrant is someone who comes here to study or work temporarily, so people like foreign students and skilled workers. Once here, they can apply to stay permanently, but they don’t enter the country that way. Whereas, an immigrant is someone who comes here to live permanently and states their intention upfront. 

So, why has immigration become a political issue in Oz?
It’s because the numbers of migrants (both temporary and permanent) are at such a high level. We’ll get into the numbers in a moment, but some experts say the amount of people we’ve taken in is putting pressure on things like housing affordability, rental shortages, our health system and general demand for goods and services, which is pushing up the cost of living. And a lot of that has to do with where they go to live…

Where is that…?
Reports say around 83% of new immigrants move to major cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, where housing is already in short supply and expensive. And when it comes to migrants, a lot of them are students and temporary workers who rent - and that’s pushed vacancy rates to record lows and sent rents through the roof. We’re also still catching up after our borders were shut during the Covid-19 pandemic. 

What happened then?
When our borders opened up again, there was a massive surge of what’s called ‘Net Overseas Migration’ or NOM - aka the number of people arriving minus the people leaving. That sudden influx of people needed to live somewhere, but housing was already tight. Since then, the issue has become a real political pressure point, because, while groups like the Business Council of Australia say migration is crucial for our productivity and economic growth, critics say we’ve taken in too many people too fast without the infrastructure to handle it.

OK, tell me about the numbers…
Australia’s population is now nearly 28 million people, and roughly a third (so 8.8 million) were born overseas. That’s a really high proportion compared to similar countries. Take the US for example, it’s around 15%, and the UK is around 20%. So when people talk about Australia being one of the world’s biggest cultural melting pots, they’re bang on. 

How fast have we grown?
Really quickly… Data from the Bureau of Stats shows that since 2000, Australia’s population has grown by 43%. That’s more than double the average growth rate across similar developed countries - and it’s been driven in large part by temporary migrants, especially over the past decade. 

Just explain that a bit more…
While the number of permanent immigrants is set at 185,000 a year, the number of temporary migrants arriving (less those departing, so the NOM) is much higher. It spiked after Covid, hitting 538,000 in 2022-23 when we already had a housing shortage. Then it dropped to 429,000 the next year, and it’s now around 300,000 - which is still historically high, but it’s trending down. And that’s the part experts say has changed our migration system. 

How so?
We’ve got around 2.9 million temporary visa holders in the country made up of students, backpackers and skilled workers - so about one in 10 people living here. But 20 years ago, that wasn’t the norm - we used to mostly bring in people permanently. Now, temporary migration has become a huge part of the workforce (and one we’ve come to rely on in some sectors like agriculture and aged care). And those workers contribute a lot in taxes because they don’t get the tax-free threshold that Oz citizens and permanent residents do.

How do international students factor in?
They’re a major earner for unis because they pay full fees, but they also rent in the cities, use transport and services, and in some cases end up staying long-term. So that’s why they’re part of the conversation. 

What other factors are contributing to the housing shortage in Oz?
Economists mostly agree that migration affects housing demand - but they disagree on how much. There’s an argument that other factors are impacting housing much more - things like overly complicated planning rules which hold up new builds, a lack of tradies, and construction bottlenecks because of those first 2 factors. Then there are the tax incentives on investments that some analysts say have been keeping property prices and rents high, shutting younger buyers out of the property market (more on those in a jiffy)… 

What are the major political parties proposing?
The Albanese Government says migration is still important because Australia’s birth rate has fallen to 1.48 children per woman, which is below replacement level, and industries like healthcare, aged care, construction and farming rely heavily on migrant workers. That said, they’re trying to lower temporary migrant numbers - they’ve made student visa rules stricter, upped English language requirements, and made it more difficult for some visa holders to stay. 

What about housing?
Labor says the main problem is with housing supply, not migration. As for those tax incentives we mentioned, it’s made changes in the Budget around investments with the aim of freeing up housing for younger and first-home buyers, and it’s trying to cut red tape around building approvals to speed things up. It’s also extended restrictions on foreign investors buying existing homes in Oz until 2029.

What’s the Coalition planning?
Coalition leader Angus Taylor is taking a harder line, saying migration should be capped based on how many homes are available. In his Budget reply, Taylor said he’d limit our net migration intake to match the number of new homes built the year before. If elected, he says the Coalition would also block welfare payments for non-citizens and prevent them from accessing the NDIS (with a grandfather clause, meaning existing rules would apply to people already here). And he wants to introduce an “Australian values” test…

What’s that about?
It’d mean stronger screening for visa applicants and the ability to cancel visas for people deemed to be disrespecting our laws and values. It could be tricky to enforce, but it’s one way Taylor wants to win back voters who’ve drifted to One Nation.

Let’s talk about One Nation… What are they proposing?
Their leader Pauline Hanson has been very outspoken on this issue. They want to cut immigration back to a hard cap of 130,000 arrivals a year. They’ve been linking their message to housing shortages, infrastructure stress and the breaking down of what they call “core Australian values” for years - and they’re now getting traction with voters. The biggest indication of that shift in support was the party’s first-ever lower house seat win in the Farrer by-election on 9 May. 

And the Greens?
They think migration is being unfairly blamed for the housing shortage, and that it’s down to housing policy and generational inequity caused by those tax incentives for investors we mentioned… So all up, there’s a pretty big split between the parties on immigration policy - and underneath all of that is a broader question about what sort of country Australia wants to be. 

Why does it matter now?
Well, immigration has shaped modern Australia and made us a culturally rich and diverse country with more than 250 ancestries and over 350 languages spoken in households - and we’ve built our economy around it. But as we’ve outlined, experts say it’s become a lightning rod for a lot of people’s frustrations, and with our population still growing and demand for workers staying high, it’s a debate that’s not going away anytime soon.

Onto our Recommendations

Reading: This piece by Paul Kelly in The Australian (paywall) gets into some of the reasons why immigration is a live issue.

Reading: This ABC article covers Coalition leader Angus Taylor’s Budget reply speech - and the reaction to it.

Reading: In this story, SBS looks at some of the numbers around immigration and how they relate to the housing shortage.

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