An uprising in Iran

An uprising in Iran

Massive protests in Iran have been taking place over the last few weeks. They started with shopkeepers closing their doors over worsening economic conditions, but they've since spread to become the largest uprising in the country's recent history. So in this Squiz Shortcut, we'll look at:

• how the protests began

• the response from the Iranian authorities

• and what might come next…

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Listen to Larissa Moore and Andrew Williams cover this topic in this Squiz Shortcut, or check it out on YouTube - and hit subscribe while you’re at it.

Listen/watch time: 11 minutes

Squiz the Shortcut

Iran’s been in a news a fair bit in the last 12 months…
That's right… Our security agencies revealed that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – a division of the Iranian military that reports directly to the Supreme Leader - was behind certain antisemitic attacks in Australia. The Iranian ambassador was expelled as a result - the first time that had happened since WWII.

That’s right… So tell me about their leaders?
It's led by its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iran is considered an authoritarian theocracy, which means it's led by religious leaders with a high amount of concentrated power and low accountability to the public.

Right. And now the public is protesting…
Yep, it began late last year in Tehran, Iran's capital, when a stack of merchants and shopkeepers closed their doors to protest what they saw as worsening economic conditions.

How bad is it?
Iran faces a range of economic challenges at present - high levels of international sanctions make it difficult for the country to access international financial markets, a significant portion of its assets is frozen overseas, and it relies heavily on imports. But the critical thing that led to the shopkeepers closing their doors was when the rial - that's the Iranian currency - dropped to a record low against the US dollar.

That does sound pretty bad…
It dropped to 1.42 million against the dollar, which is a 56% fall in 6 months. That's driven inflation sky-high, which means the cost of living is extremely high. One taxi driver told the media that the price of dairy products, for example, went up by a factor of 6x in 2025.

So that was the tipping point?
Yep… These shopkeepers in the Grand Bazaar in Tehran closed their doors as a protest over how expensive everything was - which was especially notable because reports say many of those shopkeepers are generally supportive of the regime there. That kicked off a spread of protests across the country.

So they began in Tehran, but clearly they’ve grown from there…
They sure have - to all 31 provinces in Iran, and the scale now ranks up there with the 1979 Islamic Revolution as the largest uprising in the country's recent history. Hundreds of people have been killed and thousands arrested or detained.

Give me a refresher on the Islamic Revolution…
Also known as the Iranian Revolution, it was an uprising that replaced the Imperial State of Iran with the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. Essentially, it replaced the former monarchy of the country with the current system. But now, a similar scale of protests represents the largest threat to essentially the same regime that rode those 1979 protests to power.

And it’s all about the economy?
That’s how it began, but the uprising is now essentially a broad protest against the current regime. Complaints include ethnic division, poverty, government corruption and last year's military strikes from Israel and the US, and the constant threat of war with either or both of those countries.

How has the government responded?
Despite some words from President Pezeshkian in the early days of the protests that some of the complaints were legitimate, reports say he has limited power – the supreme leader calls the shots. And the reaction to the protests has since amped up significantly - it's been met with armed police, security forces and then last week the government cut phone lines and internet access.

Has that worked?
Security analysts say this is a go-to measure to try to stop protests from spreading and stop the international community from hearing about it. Suffice it to say - as you might have guessed, this hasn't especially worked - if anything, observers are now far more concerned because blackouts are also often used before lethal force is used on protesters.

What's been the international reaction?
High levels of worry across the board, and in the US, President Donald Trump has been pretty forthright – he told a radio host late last week that he has "let them know that if they start killing people, which they tend to do during their riots, we're going to hit them very hard". While he stopped short of the idea of putting US troops on the ground, he's made sure to let Iran know that the US is watching the situation very closely and that his country is considering military options.

How has Iran's leadership responded to that?
The supreme leader has told the US to essentially butt out of Iranian affairs and blamed them for inciting the protests. Khamenei said that "the Islamic Republic will not back down in the face of those who are trying to destroy us". Iran has promised to hit US military bases in retaliation if the US takes action.

What about Australia's position?
Foreign Minister Penny Wong put out a joint statement with the Foreign Ministers of Canada and the European Union to say they supported the bravery of the Iranian people and condemned the government's crackdown on its protestors.

Could these protests actually topple the government?
There are mixed opinions about the likelihood of that. Some have said that they're unlike any protests that have come before, and in the words of one Iranian journalist, she can "smell the freedom" and that the protestors have no fear because they have nothing to lose. Others say with limited alternatives, the protests may fizzle out over time - but that certainly hasn’t happened yet. It’s a serious threat to the current regime.

So if that regime falls, what replaces it?
In the event that the current government doesn't make it to the end of the year, a name to note is Reza Pahlavi. He is the son of the now-deceased shah, or monarch, who was deposed by the Islamic revolution in 1979. He is in exile in the United States - and he has been calling for this revolution for a long time.

What does he want for Iran?
He wants Iran to become a constitutional monarchy - and a liberal democracy - both elements of our system of government in Australia. He also wants it to become an ally of the Western world and Israel - a country it's been at odds with for a very long time. But this all depends on how long the protests go for and whether the international community, particularly the US, weighs in. That’s the thing to watch over the coming days…

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Onto our Recommendations

Reading: This CNN explainer goes into the internet blackout specifically - what's behind it and what the Iranian authorities are hoping to achieve with it.

Watching: For something a bit lighter - and not suggesting this is particularly historically accurate - but the 2012 film Argo, which won Best Picture, is set during the Iran hostage crisis of the late 70s/early 80s and is worth a watch.

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