What does the US want with Cuba?

What does the US want with Cuba?

Tensions between the US and Cuba have flared up recently over Cuba's support for the regime of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who was arrested by American forces in January. Soon after that, America began blockading oil to the socialist nation, which is now on the brink of economic collapse - and analysts say regime change could be coming soon. So in this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll take a look at:

• The history between the US and Cuba

• What’s been happening there

• And what the US wants with it…

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Squiz the Shortcut

Just remind me of where Cuba is…
It’s a long, narrow island nation in the Caribbean, around 145km off the coast of Florida, so it’s very close to the US. It’s the biggest island in that region, with a population of about 10 million people, and it’s famous for its cigars, coffee, architecture - and it’s where the rumba and salsa dances originated… It’s a real cultural melting pot with the US and South America, and a lot of that is to do with their history which is quite intertwined.

Tell me a bit about that…
So while the divide between the capitalist US and socialist Cuba might seem big today, it wasn’t always the case. The Cuban government used to be supported by the US and the 2 countries did a heap of trade with each other. On paper, the country was wealthy, but that money was concentrated in the cities and with government/military officials, and most of it was tied up in foreign investment (for example, 90% of its mines were US-owned…). 

How did the people feel about that?
Outside of the urban centres, there was widespread poverty. Cubans remember that time as being like ‘2 worlds’ - there was huge inequality with infrastructure rarely reaching rural areas and farmers on the brink of starvation. It sowed deep resentment in the people, and in 1959, a figure you might’ve heard of, Fidel Castro, led a rebel army in a revolution to overthrow the government. A communist regime was installed, and it’s been a socialist nation ever since. 

What happened after the revolution?
There was a significant shift in Cuba’s international alignment - once heavily influenced by the US, it became more and more friendly with the Soviet Union, which put it firmly on the other side of the Cold War… And that brings us to one of the biggest sticking points in the US-Cuba relationship, the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. 

What was that about?
That was when the Soviet Union placed nuclear missiles in Cuba. The US found out, and the world came close to nuclear war. The standoff ended with the missiles being removed, but since then, Cuba has been a major sore point. The US has kept up pressure against it, mostly through economic sanctions - it’s restricted trade, travel, and investment, which has all been designed to isolate Cuba and weaken its government. 

So why have tensions ramped up again?
A lot of it has to do with Venezuela… For years, Cuba and Venezuela had a close relationship. Under former leader Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela supplied Cuba with heavily discounted oil, which was critical to keeping Cuba’s economy running - not only for its transport, but also for its businesses, farming and hospitals. 

What did Cuba give in exchange?
Cuba sent doctors, intelligence advisers, and security support to Venezuela. That arrangement - known as the ‘oil for doctors’ program - worked smoothly until 3 January, when the US military launched an operation that captured Maduro. It was a major blow to Cuba, not just politically in terms of an ally gone, but economically too…

Just explain that a bit more…
It meant that Cuba lost its main source of oil overnight. And the US didn’t stop there. The Trump Administration then moved to effectively cut Cuba off from oil altogether. It imposed an oil blockade, stopping shipments from reaching the island. And it’s also threatened to impose secondary tariffs on countries that try to supply Cuba with oil, including Mexico and Brazil.

What is the US trying to achieve? 
Experts say that the US is trying to make it so difficult for Cuba to access fuel that its economy grinds to a halt. There’s some speculation that the US is after regime change - we’ll get into that in a moment - but because oil powers everything from electricity generation to transport, the impact on the economy from the fuel shortage, and in turn the people, has been severe.

What’s been happening there?
You might’ve seen in the news that Cuba has been dealing with frequent blackouts that can last up to 12 hours. There have been at least 3 nationwide outages in March alone. Public transport has been paralysed, water systems have been disrupted because pumps rely on electricity, and hospitals have had to delay non-essential surgeries. There have even been reports of women having to give birth in the dark… 

Yikes…
Yep… We know how much of a squeeze the oil supply crunch is putting on our society here in Oz - but it’s reached a new level in Cuba. People are struggling to keep food from spoiling because their fridges keep turning off, phones and internet networks are down during outages, their garbage isn’t being collected because the trucks can’t get diesel to run, and basic supplies like medicines are in short supply. 

How are the people feeling about that?
Reports say that there’s frustration growing among citizens… Protests (which are technically forbidden…) have been happening more frequently - reports say people have been taking to the streets, banging pots and pans at night to show their anger. In some cases, that frustration has even turned into vandalism of government buildings.

Could it force a change at the top?
The big question is how far it’ll go before people start demanding Cuba’s leaders step down. And that’s what the US is hoping will happen. US President Donald Trump has been very clear that he believes the Cuban government is under more pressure now than at any time since the missile crisis, and that it could collapse as a result.

But that’s not guaranteed…
No, it’s not… Historically, external pressure has often had the opposite effect in Cuba. It can unify people against a common enemy, and the government has leaned heavily into that by calling for resistance. Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel has publicly said that any external aggressor, like the US if they try to invade, will face “impregnable resistance”. But despite all of that tough rhetoric, the 2 sides have begun talking… 

Where are the talks up to?
Not a lot of information is coming out, but there have been some signs of progress. Cuba has already released dozens of prisoners, including some who were jailed for protesting. It’s also announced reforms that would allow Cubans living overseas to invest in the country, which is a big shift in policy aimed at bringing more money in.

What does the US want in return?
Reports say America is talking about political reform and a reshaping of Cuba’s leadership - possibly even the departure of Díaz-Canel himself… And it speaks to what the US’s end goal seems to be here, which is regime change - or at the very least, a government that aligns more closely with American interests. As you might imagine, that’s drawn some criticism. 

What are critics saying?
The UN, the leaders of Brazil and Mexico, and some international law experts (not to mention Cuba’s leaders) have all said the US is trying to force Cuba back into a position where it’s heavily influenced by American interests, similar to the period before the revolution. And there’s a term being used for it…

What are people calling it?
The ‘Venezuela Solution’ - referencing what’s happened in Venezuela since Maduro was removed - where Cuba’s leaders might stay in place but with reduced control, so they’d be expected to align more closely with the US in exchange for relief from sanctions and access to oil. But that could be a tough sell domestically. 

Why is that?
For Cuba’s leadership, agreeing to those terms could be seen as surrendering the principles that the revolution was built on. And for many Cubans, there’s a mix of frustration with their own government and deep suspicion of US intentions. So it might not be a simple case of pressure bringing about change. What’s clear is that the humanitarian cost is significant, and it’s growing.

Is that something the US is weighing up?
It is… Some reports say that the White House doesn’t want a complete collapse of the Cuban government, because that could trigger a migration crisis - particularly to places like Florida, which already has a large Cuban community.

So where does that leave things?
What happens next will likely depend on whether a deal can be reached, and what each side is willing to give up to get there. Watch this space… 

Onto our Recommendations

Reading: This article by CNN which gives an account of what daily life looks like in Cuba right now…

Reading: This deep dive into the history of US-Cuba relations, which helps give some context to current events…

Watching: The movie Thirteen Days, starring Kevin Costner - it’s all about the Cuban Missile Crisis. You can find it on Apple TV or Prime Video.

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