The US midterm elections explained

The US midterm elections explained

Coming into the end of year, you’ll start to hear more and more news stories - whether it’s the war with Iran, or trade wars and tariffs - referring to what they’ll mean for the upcoming midterm elections. They’re an important moment in US politics, so in this Squiz Shortcut we’ll unpack:

• What the midterms are

• How they work

• And what it might mean for the rest of US President Donald Trump’s time in office

🙋 This newsletter was written by Jonathan Liondis

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Squiz the Shortcut

Let’s start with the basics… What are the midterms?
They’re general elections (as opposed to a presidential election) held at the halfway point of a US president’s term in office. Hence the name, mid-term. This year, they’re happening on 3 November.

What are they for?
They determine who controls the US Congress, which has 2 houses like our parliament. The lower house - often referred to as the ‘House’ - is called the House of Representatives (but somewhat confusingly, members are called Congressmen and women). 

How do they work?
Every 2 years, all 435 representatives in the lower house are up for re-election. In the upper house, or the Senate, roughly a third of the 100 Senators also face voters in the midterms, because they serve 6-year terms…

Who controls the lower house now?
Right now, the Republicans control it, but only by a thin margin - so the stakes are high in November because it could tip. You might’ve seen ‘primaries’ going on in the past couple of months in American states - they’re votes to decide who represents each party in the midterms. 

So to be clear, the President is not up for election this year?
He’s not… Unlike Australia, in the US, the Executive (who enforce laws) and the Legislature (who make laws) are distinct. So this means that the President must work with Congress to pass laws, rather than sitting in it, which requires some very deft political dealmaking skills or their party’s control of both chambers. 

Does that make the Senate the bigger prize?
It’s the more politically relevant one, partly thanks to those longer terms. It tends to be the place where would-be presidential candidates bide their time and build a national profile. Think of Barack Obama, who was the Senator for Illinois from 2005 to 2008, or Joe Biden who was the long-time Senator for Delaware from 1973 to 2009, when he became Obama’s Vice President.

In the midterms, is it only the Congress that’s up for grabs?
Nope… Of the 50 states in the US, 36 are also voting for their Governors (similar to our Premiers) on the same day. The US holds all of its regular elections, whether at the local, state or federal level, on the first Tuesday of November…

So, some Americans turning up to vote could be voting for multiple positions?
Yep… They could not only be voting for their Representative in the House, but potentially also their Senator and Governor as well as also deciding who ends up on the local school boards and whether their city decides that the rubbish collection should move from a Monday to a Wednesday…

How many people turn up?
Voting isn’t compulsory in the US, so the turnout for the midterms is typically about 40% for the midterms, compared to 50-60% for the Presidential elections… Despite the lower turnout, it’s a big deal because it’ll serve as a referendum on Trump’s Presidency and a sense check on the future of both the Democratic and Republican parties. And that, in turn, has repercussions for Australia and our relationship with the US. 

What’s the state of play leading into the midterms?
With Trump as President, Republicans control the White House, and they also hold both the Senate and Congress with a 3 seat majority. Most of the Primaries for each seat have concluded, so the stage is largely set leading into 3 November - and there are 3 big talking points to be across…

What’s the first?
How the country is judging President Donald Trump’s second term in office. He’s not on the ballot, but he’ll be top of mind for voters, because most analysis of the 2024 election says he won largely off the back of a real spike in the cost of living. So this will be a chance for voters to mark his homework on whether he’s made progress there, on top of the other things he’s been doing, like tariffs, or the ongoing war in Iran… 

And how’s that looking?
Not flash… The latest Reuters/Ipsos polling has Trump’s approval rating at a historic low of 33% - that’s a 14-point slide from the start of his second term. And the Democrats are about 7% ahead of the Republicans in national polling. 

Does that mean the US is in for a Democrat sweep?
Not necessarily… That’s a rough overall national average, and plenty of seats are so deeply Republican or Democrat, that they have no chance of changing hands. It’s the ones in the middle that could go either way that’ll make the difference… 

What’s the second talking point to be across?
It’s whether the Democrats can capitalise on those numbers and reclaim some political power - whether it’s in the House or the Senate. The big question being asked is how they’ll move forward. 

Just explain that a bit more…
There are 2 major wings of the Democratic party - the progressive wing that believes in larger government and more redistribution of wealth (think, New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani). And then there’s a more conservative wing that’s politically closer to the centre. You might’ve seen in the news that the progressive wing of the party has had some big wins recently. Now, a win is a win, but the conservatives have concerns…

What’s the issue?
While the progressive candidates might be successful in big cities like New York, there are questions over whether their policy positions will work across the country in rural or suburban areas where Dems need to pick up wins… 

So which way is the party leaning?
It’s still very much a live debate. As we mentioned, the Democrats only need to pick up a few seats to regain control - and they’re a chance to do that in both chambers… To take the Senate, they need to flip 4 seats for an outright majority. They’re confident, given the poll results and some high-profile candidates, but those internal tensions are something to watch. 

What about the Republicans?
They’ll be crossing all their fingers for that storyline to blow up as they try to hold control of both houses. They’ve actually got a few chances to win seats off the Democrats in the Senate, particularly with a few moderate candidates in races like Michigan…

And in the lower house?
There’s less hope for the Republicans there - historically it’s been the chamber that swings hardest, and current polling gives the Democrats an 87% chance of winning it.  

Got it… So what’s the third thing to know about the midterms?
They’re an early chance for both the Democrats and Republican presidential hopefuls to position themselves as key communicators and leaders ahead of the 2028 Presidential campaign, which will start to kick off early next year. And they could give us a clue as to the direction the Democrats will take ahead of that, depending on how and where they’re successful.

Who should we keep an eye on?
Outgoing Californian Governor Gavin Newsom is one name to watch. He’s yet to formally declare his candidacy, but he’s an early front-runner in the race for the top of the Democrat’s 2028 Presidential ticket… Another is the Georgian Senator up for re-election, Jon Ossoff - partly because he’s been getting under the President’s skin. And fun fact: his mother is Australian. So we’ve got an Aussie in the fight… 

So what does all of this mean for Trump?
Despite baiting and teasing about a third-term, this is his second and last term, so the outcome of the midterms will determine exactly what he’s able to get done in the final 2 years of his Presidency. Basically, if the Republicans retain complete control of Congress, it’ll give Trump a bit more power in the last phase of his presidency. 

And if they don’t?
If the Democrats win either one or both houses of Congress, it’ll accelerate the view that Trump is a ‘lame duck’ post the midterms, meaning his power would be reduced. There’ll be no more elections for him to compete in and attention will shift to the candidates vying to succeed him in 2028… 

Who’s in the mix there?
Some of the names to watch are Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as well as Vice President JD Vance - they’re the 2 who are often talked about as the key figures set to take over. But a new name could emerge from what happens in November, so that’s one of the many reasons the midterms are so closely watched. 

Onto our Recommendations

Reading: This conversation on Substack with Paul Krugman and pollster G Elliott Morris, which breaks down the numbers and narratives making up the fight for these midterms. 

Listening: This episode of The Daily charts the rise of the progressives in the Democrats and delves into some of the inter-party tensions…

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