Squiz Shortcuts - Where are peace talks up to between Russia and Ukraine?

Where are peace talks up to between Russia and Ukraine?

There’s been a flurry of meetings over the past week between leaders from Russia, Ukraine, the US and Europe with the aim of ending the war in Ukraine, so we thought it might be a good time to check in on where the negotiations for peace are up to. In this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll get you across:

• who’s been talking to whom

• what’s been up for discussion

• and what it might mean for the war going forward…

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Squiz the Shortcut

Why has US President Donald Trump taken the reins in negotiating peace between Ukraine and Russia?
Mostly because Trump has an inroad to Russian President Vladimir Putin. There are a lot of powerful nations in Europe that have a very real interest in ending the war, which has been going on for 3.5 years now, but they’ve made it very clear that they’re siding with Ukraine and have sidelined Russia and Putin. 

So Putin’s not likely to sit down with them to negotiate?
No… Remember, part of Putin’s reasons for going to war was his fear that Ukraine - a nation on its border - was getting too close to Western Europe. He was against the military alliance that could come with that association, so it’s unlikely he’d be open to talks with them.

Enter Donald Trump… 
Not only is the US the biggest funder of Ukraine’s defence, but Trump has also taken it upon himself to keep the lines of communication open between himself and Putin. He’s been widely criticised for that by many, but some leaders - like British PM Keir Starmer - have praised him for the role he’s playing. Also, he’s said to really, really want a Nobel Peace Prize… 

So, has Trump managed a breakthrough with Putin?
You might’ve seen in the news that the 2 leaders met in Alaska last Friday for a summit. Trump gave the Russian leader, who’s been in the international sin bin since invading Ukraine, the red carpet treatment as well as a military flyover, and Putin also rode in Trump's presidential limo.

Is that the usual treatment for an international outcast?
Nope… The New York Times pointed out that this was a level of ceremony normally reserved for an ally, not someone who's been waging war in Europe for three and a half years.

So what happened in the talks?
The first session lasted for nearly 3 hours - and some commentators say Trump set himself up for a fall by telling reporters before the summit: "I won't be happy if I walk away without some form of a ceasefire". 

Did he get that agreement?
Nope… No concrete deal came out of it. The pair addressed the media, took no questions, and lunch and the afternoon session were cancelled. So, it looked like a bit of a fizzer on the surface of things. But both leaders said it had been constructive, with Putin saying it was "timely and very useful," and Trump said it was "very productive" even though they hadn’t reached a deal on “probably the most significant” issue.

What was that?
European officials briefed afterwards by Trump said Putin's demands included annexing the entire Donbas region - even parts that Ukraine still controls - plus drawing new borders along current front lines. That’s a land grab of more than 53,000 square km.

Apart from a warm welcome from Trump, what did Putin get from the meeting?
He didn’t get an agreement on the land - Trump maintains that only Ukraine can negotiate territory. But before he left Alaska, Trump told Fox News it was over to Zelensky to “make a deal”. Trump has canned the idea of a temporary ceasefire, and he now has it in his mind to get Putin and Zelensky together to strike a deal for “lasting peace”. So while that happens, what Putin gets is extra time. 

Can you explain that a bit more?
Even while these negotiations have been going on, Russian forces have been continuing to advance in Ukraine. Military analysts say Putin's got until mid-October before the weather turns colder and advances become harder. That's two months to consolidate gains. 

And are things moving along?
Well, that brings us to round 2 between Trump and Zelensky. The Ukrainian president was left out of the Alaska summit, but he met with Trump this week at the White House. And this time, he brought some European leaders along for support. And, given what happened last time Zelensky visited, there were lots of questions about how it would go down.

Remind me what happened last time?
It was meant to be a big moment when a minerals deal was going to be signed between the US and Ukraine, but it descended into Trump and VP JD Vance yelling at Zelensky, calling him ungrateful and disrespectful. Zelensky was asked to leave the White House, and Trump posted to social media that Zelensky could "come back when he's ready for peace". The sight of a US president berating a foreign leader like that - on camera from the Oval Office - was… unsettling for many.

Fast forward a few months…
As we mentioned, Zelensky brought the cavalry - we're talking French President Emmanuel Macron, NATO chief Mark Rutte, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Britain's Keir Starmer, Germany's Friedrich Merz, and Italy's Giorgia Meloni. And, on top of offering support for Zelensky, the leaders were there because several top European officials have warned that if Putin, who has a history of breaking diplomatic commitments, is not stopped in Ukraine, he could try to take more European territory by force.

So, how did it go down?
From the get-go, it was different this time around… When asked about Ukraine, Trump said, "We love them". And Zelensky even dressed up - a bit… One of the things Trump and Vance criticised him for last time they met was turning up in his wartime garb. This time, he was in a dark suit jacket - with no tie - but a more formal getup than last time. 

No fireworks this time?
No… Zelensky and Trump spent about an hour together before they moved to another room with the European leaders, where things were very chummy-chummy. Trump called Starmer "my friend," he said he liked Macron "from day one," and even told Merz, "I want to get a tan like that." 

Classic Trump… So, was a deal reached?
Some progress on the big question of security guarantees was made - they are essentially a promise to support an allied nation if it is attacked - whether that’s through weapons or troops on the ground. When asked what Ukraine needs from the US, Zelensky replied: "Everything".  He wants a strong Ukrainian army, weapons, training, intelligence - the works.

What did Trump say?
Trump's response was the most decisive he's been on this issue. He said Europe would be the "first line of defence" but the US would be "involved" and that “we’ll give them good protection”. He also didn't rule out US troops on the ground, saying they'd discuss it and let everyone know later. That's actually significant…

How so?
He's saying that Putin accepted during the Alaska summit that there would be security guarantees for Ukraine as part of any peace deal. The details on that are vague, but the fact that he's not ruling anything out is giving Ukraine and Europe hope.

And what about land? Was that discussed?
That’s not clear, but after the meeting, Zelensky said no "unacceptable decisions" were made during the talks - and he’s ready for a trilateral meeting (that’s a fancy way of saying a 3-way meeting) with Putin, himself and Trump. 

How soon could that happen?
Trump says it's now a case of "when, not if" this happens. It’s another significant step, because Putin has so far refused to meet with Zelensky directly, considering him an illegitimate leader. So, where and when that happens is still a big question.

So, where does this leave things?
Well, the takeaways are that it was definitely warmer - commentators are saying that Zelensky's "charm offensive" worked. Trump has given his strongest comments yet on security guarantees, both sides are open to a three-way summit, and the Europeans have successfully inserted themselves into the process.

And as for Putin?
His demands haven't changed - he still wants the Donbas region in Eastern Ukraine and for Ukraine to give up territory inside the area that it still controls. The Kremlin's saying they won't meet until the "appropriate distance" between positions is "overcome." And Trump's still putting pressure on Zelensky to make a deal in that respect.

So there’s still a power imbalance?
Exactly... While the second White House meeting between Zelensky and Trump was certainly an improvement, the substance of what's being asked of Ukraine remains deeply problematic. The power dynamics haven't shifted - Trump holds all the cards when it comes to US military aid. But the US-Ukraine relationship didn’t implode.

And what sort of toll has the war taken on both sides?
Reports say one million Russian soldiers have been killed in action and 400,000 Ukrainian troops are dead, along with almost 14,000 Ukrainian civilians. There are 3.7 million displaced Ukrainians inside the country, and 6.9 million have left the country altogether. It’s one of the biggest mass displacements of people since WWII. 

And on the money side?
It’s into the billions of dollars… As we mentioned, the US is the biggest funder of Ukraine at $128 billion, the majority of which goes to weapons and military support.

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Onto our Recommendations

Reading: This Sky News article shows where the territorial battle is up to between the 2 countries, so you can see which country is currently in control of what land.

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