Squiz Shortcuts - What's next for the Gaza ceasefire

Your Shortcut to… What’s next for the Gaza ceasefire

The first phase of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has ended, but despite agreeing to a blueprint for phase 2 back in January, the 2 sides are now divided over what comes next… So in this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll take you through:

• what happened in phase one

• what was drafted for phase 2

• and where negotiations are up to

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Squiz the Shortcut

There was a whole plan for the ceasefire in Gaza, right?
Yep… It was meant to roll out in 3 phases. The first phase began on 19 January and it came to an end on 2 March - and a lot’s happened in that time. 

Fill me in…
Let’s start with the exchange of hostages and prisoners. There’s been 33 hostages released by Hamas in phase one - 25 of them are still alive, while the bodies of 8 people have been returned to their families.

And on the Palestinian side?
In exchange for those hostages, reports say 1,737 Palestinian prisoners have been freed by Israel, including 120 women and children detainees. And while some of the prisoners were serving long sentences, about 1,000 of them had been arrested after the Hamas terror attacks on 7 October 2023.

Remind me what happened
Around 1,200 people were killed by Hamas militants who crossed the border into Israel that day. They also took 251 people hostage - mostly Israelis but also a number of foreign nationals from the US, UK, Thailand, France, Germany and others. During a brief ceasefire in November 2023, 81 Israeli hostages were released, along with a number of those foreign citizens. But the fighting started up again…

What is the death toll from the war in Gaza?
After 15 months of fighting, the death toll for Palestinians in Gaza now stands at 48,000, according to the Hamas-led health ministry.

What else happened in phase one of the ceasefire?
Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have been able to return home to northern Gaza after the withdrawal of Israeli troops from civilian areas, and it’s also allowed a lot more aid in the form of food and medicine to flow into the area. 

Has it gone smoothly?
Nope… It’s been shaky at best, with both sides accusing each other of breaching the agreement at times, and there’s been some delays to the hostage exchanges and threats to resume fighting along the way… But despite those wobbles, the ceasefire managed to stay on track with the help of international mediators.

So, what’s planned for phase 2?
Good question… The parties were meant to have started talks on phase 2 back in the first week of February, but discussions have only recently begun - and they’re not getting far, according to reports from the region… 

What was supposed to happen?
A permanent ceasefire, along with the exchange of the remaining living hostages, and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. After that, in phase 3, the remaining bodies of dead hostages would be returned, and a plan to rebuild the Gaza strip would be drafted… But reports say Israel now has other ideas of how it wants things to go…

What does Israel want?
There are 59 hostages still being held by Hamas, with 24 believed to be alive, and Israel wants them all returned home in the next part of the deal. To get that done, it’s asked for an extension of phase one.

For how long?
It initially asked for an extra 42 days. That was rejected by Hamas because it said there was no guarantee Israel would commit to seeing the rest of the deal through. But mediators from Egypt, Qatar and the US have been involved in talks to get phase 2 back off the ground, and now there’s another deal on the table…

What does that entail?
This one is a US-backed plan for an extension past the Islamic holy period of Ramadan to the end of the Jewish feast of Passover, which also happens to finish on the Christian holy day of Easter Sunday this year, on 20 April. Under that plan, half of the hostages, both alive and dead, would be released on the first day of the extension, followed by the rest when a permanent ceasefire is agreed to. 

How do the parties feel about it?
Israel has agreed to it, but it also wants Hamas to have no part in governing Gaza after the war. And Hamas says it’s willing to hand over control to a Palestinian national government that doesn’t have ties to Israel. 

Got it… How does Hamas feel about the deal?
Hamas doesn’t want a deviation from the original plan for phase 2, and it wants Israel to honour its agreement to completely withdraw troops from all areas of Gaza - especially from the Philadelphi corridor on Gaza’s border with Egypt… 

Why is that important?
It’s where a lot of aid can get through, but Israel claims Hamas can use it to smuggle in weapons. So, before Israel will contemplate leaving, it wants Hamas to completely demilitarise first - and so far, Hamas has refused. Its leaders have also refused to go into exile… 

Where does that leave things?
Up in the air and looking dicey for the next phase of the ceasefire… To try to force Hamas to comply with the extension, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has stopped all aid going into Gaza, saying there would be “additional consequences” if Hamas didn’t agree to it… Hamas has called the threat “cheap blackmail” and appealed to mediators to intervene. 

So, tensions are rising again?
Yep… there are reports that Israeli forces are amassing on the border of Gaza in preparation for a possible resumption of fighting. And as that happens, thousands of Israelis have been holding rallies, calling on the government to continue the ceasefire so they can get their loved ones home. It’s a developing story, so watch this space…

Onto our Recommendations

Reading: This ABC story about one of 5 Thai hostages released during the ceasefire - he’s spoken about his experience being taken hostage by Hamas and what it was like coming home to his young family.

Reading: This Al-Jazeera piece profiling some of the Palestinian prisoners that have been freed by Israel.

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