Squiz Shortcuts - US Election Series: The result

An end to our Squiz Shortcuts series on the US Election: The result

It’s been run and done - the US presidential election for 2024 has delivered victory to the Republicans and Donald Trump and defeat to the Democrats and Kamala Harris. So we’ll get you across where Trump won and who voted for him, along with what the experts are saying about Harris’s defeat. And we’ll take a look at what comes next, including with the criminal cases pending against Trump…

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So Trump won… That’s quite a comeback…
It’s one for the history books, for sure… Trump is the first president to win non-consecutive terms in more than a century, and at 78yo, he’s the oldest presidential candidate ever elected.

To be fair, he was notorious before the campaign…
True. He’s the only president to be impeached twice and the first to be criminally convicted. Then, during the campaign, he was the target of 2 assassination attempts – the first time that’s happened in 40 years… 

So how did Trump win?
Well, his win in the 7 swing states had much to do with it. Last election in 2020, he was only able to hang onto North Carolina. This time he’s recorded big swings in his favour and has won (or is expected to win) them all. In the past couple of elections, it’s taken days to call some of those states, but this time the strength of the swing towards Trump and the tiny margins that Biden won them by meant they were called pretty early this time around. 

I kept hearing about Pennsylvania in this election - what happened there?
Well, the ‘blue wall’ has held together again. It comprises the manufacturing and union-heavy states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. They used to be reliably Democratic supporting states, but Trump famously flipped them when he won the White House in 2016. Biden won them back in 2020, but Kamala Harris was unable to hang on there… 

So looking broadly, how big is Trump’s win?
This result will likely eclipse his win over Hillary Clinton in 2016. In that election, Trump didn’t win the popular vote. But this time around, Trump has won both the Electoral College and popular votes…

Who voted for him?
He grew both his suburban and rural vote compared to 2020. The exit polls indicate he galvanised working-class white voters, particularly men - and he’s now carried the majority of the non-college-educated vote in 3 consecutive elections. And he’s also picked up more of the college-educated vote, too… 

Are there any trends showing how women voted?
Yep... A lot was said about women being a force of support for Harris, and she went big on the issue of abortion, but it looks like that hasn’t necessarily translated to votes… To be clear, more women voted for Harris than Trump, but Trump improved his overall vote among women.

How about Black and Latino voters?
They haven't deserted the Democrats, but they voted for Trump in bigger numbers than before. That was a surprise - Harris’s race and gender were expected to get her more support from those groups, but it didn’t happen at a scale she needed. 

What were the issues that won it for Trump?
The exit polls say the economy was the top issue… In one big exit poll, two-thirds of voters described the economy as bad, and those voters went big for Trump. About 45% of voters surveyed said their family's financial situation was worse than it was 4 years ago, and when it came to voting, they favoured Trump 4 to 1.

But isn’t the US economy in pretty good shape? 
It is. Inflation has come down to 2.4% from a high of 9% in June 2022. But that means prices are growing more slowly, not that they’re low…

Sounds familiar for us Aussies…
Yep, and you can be sure the Albanese Government has that whole equation top of mind as we head towards a federal election in the not-too-distant future… 

So voters punished Harris for the financial pressure they’re under because she’s a part of the Biden administration?
Bingo… The pundits are saying she didn’t differentiate herself enough from Biden during her short campaign. On the crucial issue of the economy, the exit polls show that voters wanted change, and they didn’t believe Harris was going to deliver that for them… 

Got it. So what’s in store with Trump at the helm?
In contrast to Harris, Trump has promised a lot of change. He’s promised to seal the southern border by almost any means to stop illegal immigration. He says he’ll revive the economy with tariffs that would restore American manufacturing. And he says he’ll get America out of international entanglements and global conflicts.

What about his own legal entanglements? What’ll happen there?
Good question… Trump is already a convicted felon - and he’s now the first convicted felon to win the White House. So as he retakes the presidency, the feeling is he probably won’t face any legal consequences in those 4 criminal cases.

Can you please explain that?
There are 2 federal cases, and Trump has said he intends to end those when he takes power, but the Department of Justice might move to shut those down before then anyway… And with the 2 state cases, he’s been convicted of fraud in the hush-money case in New York and due to be sentenced next month, but there’s now talk that could be challenged… And the experts reckon the Georgia election interference case won’t go ahead. 

So that’s it?
Maybe. Or maybe it’s all just getting started…

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