Squiz Shortcuts - US Election Series: International issues

A Shortcuts series on the US Election: International issues

This week we’re getting you across more of the big policy issues Americans have on their minds as they get ready to vote on 5 November - with a foreign affairs slant. We’re looking at America's support for nations at war, the candidates' positions on China and our Indo-Pacific region, and where they stand on immigration.

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Squiz the Shortcut

We’re getting to the pointy end of this campaign…
Yep - there are less than 2 weeks to go, but there are still some important areas to cover in the foreign affairs space… 

I get that America’s relationship with the world might be important to us here in Australia, but how much do Americans care about those things?
Quite a lot… Foreign policy is 4th on the list of voters’ priorities, according to the Pew Research we talked about last week, and immigration comes in 6th.  

Rightio. So where do we start?
Let’s start with 2 wars… The US has been backing Ukraine’s defence against Russia and Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, which has now broadened to a wider conflict in the Middle East. But there are questions about how long that support will continue. 

Where do the candidates sit when it comes to Ukraine?
Under Harris, the US would continue to support Ukraine (note: around US$175 billion in support has been sent since Russia invaded in February 2022). At times it’s been a battle for the Biden administration to access that money because many Republicans don’t want the US in that fight - and Trump says he’ll reevaluate America’s level of support if he’s elected. 

What about support for Israel?
Both Trump and Harris have called for an end to the war in Gaza, but they’ve also reaffirmed their commitment to Israel. The alliance between the US and Israel is very tight. The US was the first country to recognise Israel when it was founded in 1948, and it’s provided military and financial aid ever since - to the tune of US$158 billion - including bombs and fighter jets and help with its Iron Dome air defence systems.  

Could the candidates’ support for Israel influence voters?
Well, like here, there have been big protests by college students and clashes between pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian groups that have turned violent. The issue could have an influence on how younger people vote - or whether they vote at all. 

Moving onto China, how are Harris and Trump looking at that relationship?
Harris says she’ll continue with US President Joe Biden’s tough approach, which has seen America try to disrupt China’s market dominance over the world’s supply chains, particularly in renewables (so things like processing of critical minerals which are needed for producing batteries in EVs, solar panels and wind turbines). 

How about Trump?
Something interesting to note is that the Biden administration kept a lot of Trump’s tough-on-China policies in place when they took office. This time, if he’s elected, Trump says he’ll go even harder - he’s planning to slap a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports on top of the ones already in place. 

Could that increase the cost of goods for Americans?
Yep. He also wants to put tariffs of between 10-20% on all international imports - something many economists say will have a huge impact on the cost of goods for Americans, and it could backfire if countries retaliate, bringing about a broader trade war.

What are the candidates’ foreign policies relating to Australia?
The continuation of the AUKUS security pact between Oz, the US and the UK is a big deal for us - it shores up our security and alliances in the face of China’s ambition to be more dominant in our region and the world. Harris says she’s committed to it, but there’s some nervousness about where Trump sits.

Why’s that?
Trump has form when it comes to backing out of international agreements. He hasn’t said yet what his plans for AUKUS are, but he wasn’t a party to negotiating the pact, and some Republicans have been critical of the arrangement to supply Australia with high-tech submarines when the US is falling behind on production for their own military. 

And immigration is a big issue in this election, right?
Sure is... Immigration is an issue 82% of Trump’s supporters say will influence how they vote, compared with 39% of Democrats - and Trump has made it a pillar of his campaign.

Why is it such a big deal in the US?
What this comes down to is that America’s migrant population rose by 1.6 million in 2023 - the largest increase in numbers since 2000. Since 2021, people have been fleeing gang-related violence, economic ruin and environmental disasters in a region called the Northern Triangle - Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. Trump has blamed Harris for that surge in numbers.

How is Harris involved?
In early 2021, President Biden gave his VP (aka Harris) the job of dealing with the “root causes” of Central American immigration - so she had a diplomatic role in coming up with solutions with the governments of those countries. To be clear, she wasn’t actually in charge of the border - that was someone else’s job. But the Republicans have labelled her the ‘border czar’, and the Democrats have had a hard time shaking off the public perception that she’s ‘weak’ on border control. 

Is that showing in the numbers?
Yep. According to the stats, 52% of registered voters say they’d trust Trump to make good decisions about immigration policy, compared to 45% for Harris… 

This isn’t new territory for Trump…
That’s right. Since he entered the fray in the 2016 election, he’s said the jobs of Americans are being ‘taken’ by migrants. And in this campaign, he’s made headlines with unsubstantiated claims that Haitian migrants living in Springfield, Ohio were killing and eating pets… But it’s mostly unauthorised migrants he talks about the loudest.

What proportion of migrants do they account for?
Around 23% of migrants are there illegally - and many of them are coming over the US/Mexico border, so that’s an ongoing hot topic. Trump reckons they’re linked to an increase in violent crime, gangs and drug running, and he says they’re “poisoning the blood of our country”... 

How is Trump planning on tackling the issue?
In his first campaign for president, he promised to build a “big beautiful wall” to keep out people crossing the border illegally from Mexico. Around 738km of the wall was built, but construction stopped when Biden took office in 2021. If he’s elected again, Trump has vowed to complete it. He’s also talked about mass deportations of undocumented migrants and possibly sending the military into major cities to “crush” the gangs.

What about Harris?
Harris has been trying to turn the narrative around by highlighting the dramatic drop in border encounters this year (meaning people caught coming into the country illegally) from a peak of 250,000 in 2023 to just under 59,000 by August. 

That’s a big drop…
It is… and experts say that’s come about because of policy changes on both sides of the border instigated by the Biden administration. Mexico is doing more to prevent people from reaching the border, and on the US side, Biden has introduced daily caps on migrant intakes and stricter rules around claiming asylum.

Will Harris continue with Biden’s tougher border policies?
Yep. She supports new restrictions on asylum and penalties for people who are picked up multiple times for trying to cross illegally into the US. She’s also talked about tackling the drug cartels, and she links that to her previous experience as the attorney general of California. Another thing she’s talked about a lot is creating “pathways to citizenship” for children of illegal immigrants - that’s an issue close to her heart…

How come?
As she’s told countless rally crowds, she was once a child of immigrants and, having had the chance to grow up in the US, she’s now running for President and effectively living the American dream…

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