Squiz Shortcuts - US Election Series: Getting ready for next week's vote

A Shortcuts series on the US Election: Getting ready for next week’s vote

After months of build-up, we’re days away from the 5 November election in the US, when Americans will head to the polls to vote for their next president. This week we’re looking at the people and issues to watch in these final days of campaigning and what experts say about the predicted outcome…

Prefer this in your ears?

Listen to our podcast 🎧

Listen time: 15 minutes

Squiz the Shortcut

How many sleeps to go?
There are 5 sleeps until voting day for Americans…

Exciting… So who’s going to win?
It’s too close to call... The candidates - Kamala Harris for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the Republicans - have been neck and neck in the polls for weeks now, and even the experts aren’t willing to take a punt on the outcome.

Got it. So how are Harris and Trump spending their last week of campaigning?
There’s no surprise that it’s the swing states that are getting most of their face time. Here’s a helpful candidate tracker to help you understand exactly how much of their time they’re dedicating to Michigan and Pennsylvania, followed by Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada… 

They’re busy beavers… Are they going anywhere else?
New York, Texas and California are on the itinerary because they’re where some of the big fundraising activities happen, and they make for great content - think about Beyonce turning out in her home state of Texas for Harris… It’s all about the pictures.

She laid her cards down down down down… What have Harris and Trump been up to in those states?
Well, Donald Trump manned the drive-thru window at a Maccas in Feasterville, Pennsylvania. The McDonald’s restaurant was closed, but customers hand-selected by the franchisee drove through to be served by Trump. 

What was that all about?
Essentially it was an event designed to troll Harris, who has talked about working at a McDonalds to help pay her way through college. Trump has accused Harris of lying about working there as a way to improve her working-class credibility… 

What’s so important about the working class vote?
It’s a big focus for both candidates because voters have listed cost of living pressures as their #1 concern… 

How’s Trump selling it?
One of his core messages is that the economy has faltered under Biden - and therefore Harris - and they’ve failed to get high prices under control, even though inflation is going down. He’s also been hammering home the issue of rising immigration and the flow of illegal migrants over the US/Mexico border (which he blames on Harris). Something else to note is that in making these points, his language has gotten coarser throughout the campaign.

Why is that?
The pundits say it’s about appearing relatable to white men without college degrees. 

Righto… What’s Harris been focusing on?
Harris is zeroing in on abortion… She’s said that her first priority as president would be to put the protections under Roe v Wade in place. She’s been telling the stories of women across the country impacted by abortion restrictions or bans while highlighting the inconsistencies in Trump’s stance on the issue. She’s also targeting pro-choice Republican women who may want to vote for her ‘in secret’.

‘In secret’...?
There’s a surprise campaign emerging by a loose-knit group of women online to blanket their communities with pro-Kamala Harris messages written on sticky notes and put in places where women may see them — bathroom stalls, the backs of tampon boxes, bathroom mirrors, the gym. And mostly the notes say, ‘If you care about this abortion issue, but you don’t want your friends and family to know - vote for Harris in secret’. 

So she’s targeting women?
Yes, but at the same time, she’s working very hard to be the generic Democratic candidate. 

What’s a generic Democratic candidate?
That means we’re not hearing much from her about being a woman and being a woman of colour. She’s not saying “vote for me because it’s time we had a woman in the White House”. 

So that’s deliberate?
Yep. It comes down to a simple assessment by the experts that has been around since the start of this year - that a generic, straight up and down Democratic candidate who was into a fair go for workers and a strong safety net - would be able to beat Trump. 

How’s that going for them?
We’ll find out in 6 days… In the meantime, both candidates have been concentrating on finding and converting undecided voters in the swing states because they could tip the balance… 

How are they doing that?
By spending a bucketload of money on campaign ads. Reports say Harris spent US$826 million between July and September, and Trump spent US$340 million, and they’ve both raked in (and spent) extra cash in October. 

Where is it coming from?
Elon Musk has put up US$118 million, making him Trump’s second biggest backer. And billionaire Timothy Mellon has given US$150 million so far - and those donations are to independent super PACs which feed into Trump’s campaign.

What’s a PAC?
It stands for political action committee - and a super PAC is a really big political action committee… Under America’s political fundraising laws, PACs can raise unlimited sums of money from corporations, unions, associations and individuals, then spend unlimited sums to overtly advocate for or against political candidates. And it’s all tax-free…

How much are we talking for this election?
As of the start of this week, 2,455 groups organised as super PACs have raised almost $4.3 billion to spend supporting Harris or Trump… 

So it’s big business…
Sure is… As for Harris, she’s out-fundraised Trump by 3:1, but she has a larger number of smaller donors… The biggest super PAC supporting her is called Future Forward USA. It’s led by a bloke called Dustin Moskovitz (one of the founders of Facebook), and US$50 million of the cash it’s raised has come from Bill Gates.

That’s a big name…
Yep, but he would’ve preferred the donation stay private because he’s tried for years to stay politically neutral. Nevertheless, it was leaked to the media, and it made headlines last week.

Have a lot of people already voted?
So far, about 20% of voters have already cast their ballots, and the experts don’t want to make any judgement about what that means and if there’s a side it’s favouring…

So what should I be keeping an eye on when the counting starts?
It’s all about Pennsylvania and Michigan… Michigan is a swing state that’s home to America’s largest Arab community. There’s anger there about the Biden administration's support of Israel as tensions in the Middle East continue to simmer. Last week, some key Muslim leaders there endorsed Trump, and that could have an influence on voters… Or they might be so angry that they boycott the vote altogether.

And Pennsylvania?
It’s got 19 electoral votes, and it’s tipped to be the most consequential battleground state in the nation. Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by a margin of a little more than 1 percentage point; and Trump won it in 2016 by a little less than 1 point. This time around, both candidates are desperate to win it, and the polls currently rate them a 50:50 chance, so it’s the one to watch.

Recent US Shortcuts