Squiz Shortcuts - The latest on Ukraine

Your Shortcut to… the latest on Ukraine

As the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches, talks about how to bring the war to an end are ramping up. So in this Squiz Shortcut we’ll take a look at:

• what the war has cost both sides

• what’s being done to bring about peace

• and why US President Donald Trump is involved in that process.

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Ok, bring me up to date
It’s a developing situation, but the main thing to note is there’s been a push by the US to broker a deal with Russia to end the war. That all kicked off with a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and then their officials met for talks. America reckons Russia is serious about reaching a deal for peace, so there are plans to begin negotiations.

So balls are rolling…
They are - and this is happening as the war reaches its third anniversary on 24 February.

Remind me how it all started?
Ok, but first, a bit of history for you… Ukraine used to be a part of the Soviet Union (that consisted of 15 republics including Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine) back in the day until it gained independence in 1991. After that, it’s been the target of fairly constant Russian intimidation - you might remember the take-over of Crimea in 2014 - and because of that, it’s taken some steps to protect itself…

What sort of steps?
Applying to NATO - short for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation - to become a member was one… And that didn’t go down well with Putin. 

What was the problem?
Putin reckons that Ukraine should never have gained its independence, and that the 2 countries are “one people” with ties that go way back. He said the presence of NATO on Russia’s doorstep would be seen as a “direct threat”... He began to amass troops and tanks along Ukraine’s eastern border under the guise of “military exercises”, and on 24 February 2022, he launched a full-scale invasion.

Did NATO help Ukraine?
Yes, but NATO stopped short of letting Ukraine join (it has some rules around countries not joining in the middle of a conflict). Since the war began, European members have given support to Ukraine in weapons and funding to the tune of $100 billion. On top of that, the US alone, under former President Joe Biden, has also donated more than $65 billion dollars in military, financial and humanitarian aid… 

But it hasn’t sent any troops?
No. NATO’s support has to stay at a distance because the one thing it doesn’t want is to be drawn into a direct war with Russia… 

What sort of toll has the war taken on each side?
Zelensky says more than 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died defending the country, and tens of thousands more are missing - and he puts the number of soldiers wounded in battle at 390,000.

Those are big numbers…
They are, but reports say the Russian death toll is much higher... Zelensky says 198,000 Russians have died, and 550,000 have been wounded - those figures haven’t been verified, but British intelligence has put the number of Russian fighters killed or wounded every day at around 1,500. 

Which side has gained more territory?
Since the start of the year, Russian forces have made big gains in Ukraine’s east, and they’re now in control of about one-fifth of the country. To put that into context - it’s the second-largest nation in Europe, so that’s a lot of land…

What about Ukraine’s gains?
Ukraine isn’t totally without negotiating power when it comes to territory… Last year in August, its forces launched a surprise offensive into Russia’s Kursk region and captured an area of around 1,200 km². As that offensive began, Zelensky said it was part of his “victory plan” - and recently, he said he’d be open to a “territory swap” as part of a peace deal. 

What did Russia say to that?
They said Zelensky’s proposal was “impossible” - but the road to peace in Ukraine looks a lot different now that Donald Trump is now in the White House… You might remember he promised on the campaign trail last year that if he won the US election, he’d end the war in Ukraine in a single day. That obviously hasn’t happened, but he’s moving on that promise a month into his presidency.

Is Ukraine involved in the peace talks between the US and Russia?
Not yet. But this week, the Trump administration assured Zelensky he’d be included at the negotiating table when things got serious. Something to note though is that since the US and Russia have been talking, relations between Trump and Zelensky have become tense.  

What’s in the peace deal for Trump?
Trump says the war is “a needless waste of lives” and he thinks he’s got the power to end it. But also, by ending it, the US would no longer be committed to helping Ukraine fund its defence. Trump’s officials have already said US troops won’t be a part of any security for Ukraine when the war ends - and that it’s Europe’s responsibility. That prompted an emergency summit of European leaders to discuss Ukraine. 

Why was it an emergency?
Leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron, UK PM Keir Starmer, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are worried that any deal made between Trump and Putin will overly favour Russia. They also met to discuss increasing their funding for Ukraine’s security after the war, given the US’s announcement.

Is Trump getting cosy with Putin?
Reports say Trump’s using the peace talks as a way to restore relations with Putin - they’ve both invited the other to visit, and there are plans to restaff the embassies in each other’s countries. Trump’s recent comments describing Zelensky as “a dictator” and a leader who’s done “a terrible job” also give some clues as to how he’s leaning.

How does Zelensky feel about that?
Zelensky says Trump is in a “disinformation space” created by Russia, and that Ukraine won’t be forced into any deals that he’s not involved in making.

It’s all happening - what’s next?
The peace talks are set to continue in the coming weeks, so watch this space… 

Onto our Recommendations

Reading: This article from the BBC titled Ukraine in Maps: Tracking the war with Russia goes into detail about the territory Russia is occupying in Ukraine.

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