Squiz Shortcuts - The drought in southern Australia

Your Shortcut to… The drought in southern Australia

A severe drought that’s been going on for over a year has caused big problems in the southern states of Australia. The lack of rainfall has devastated crops and livestock, but it's not only affecting farmers and rural communities - it’s also having an impact on our national economy. So in this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll look at:

• what’s caused the big dry

• the impact it's having

• and what the outlook is…

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Squiz the Shortcut

What’s going on with the weather down south?
Throughout history, some very famous poems and songs have been written about Australia’s droughts and floods, and this year we’ve had a reminder of why that is… Thousands of people on the Mid North Coast of NSW are still cleaning up after the recent floods, while Aussies living in parts of South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, and southern NSW have been coping with hardly any rain for over a year or even 2 years in some areas. 

How dry is it?
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has reported consistent rainfall deficiencies since 2023 across the states we just mentioned. In South Australia, it’s so dry that water is being trucked into the Adelaide Hills and the Fleurieu Peninsula to fill up water tanks and dams, and some towns are already on water restrictions… And between January to April this year, Tasmania recorded its driest start to the year since 1900.

That’s a long time… What’s the outlook?
Not great in the short-term… The BoM is forecasting “unusually high” winter temperatures and below-average rainfall through to August. After that, reports say there are signs that some rain might be on the way in Spring.

That’ll be welcome news for farmers… How are they coping?
Farmers in the drought-affected states say these are the driest conditions they’ve faced in decades. They say water sources are drying up, there’s a shortage of feed for livestock which is sending prices up, and because of that, financial pressure is building.

Let’s back it up a bit… What causes droughts?
In really simple terms, there are weather systems that pull moisture from the ocean and then dump it on land as rain. When those systems don’t form, that’s when droughts happen, and they’ve been missing from weather maps over southern Australia for months now… 

Righto… So, what makes Australia so drought-prone?
A big factor is that we’re already the second driest continent in the world. And here’s a bit of scientific knowledge for you to whip out one day: the reason for that is because of where we’re positioned on the planet. We sit right under a subtropical high-pressure belt - that’s a weather term for a system that encourages air to push downward, resulting in clear skies, warm temps and dry conditions.

Are any other factors at play?
Yep, there are climate drivers that come into it too. You might’ve heard the term El Nino - it caused the last couple of memorable droughts, namely the Big Dry (or the Tinderbox Drought) in 2018/19 and the Millennium Drought from 1997-2010…

What’s El Nino?
It’s a phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (or ENSO), the phenomenon that drives the big air flows over the Pacific Ocean. It’s a common culprit for causing droughts in the east of Australia because it leads to more air being pushed down, which again prevents rain. It comes around roughly every 3 to 7 years and lasts up to 2 years… Its sister though, La Niña, is the opposite.

Go on…
La Niña is when we get really wet and humid conditions, and that happens every 2-7 years on average... There are other drivers in the Indian and Southern Oceans that can affect things too, but the upshot is that we’re at the mercy of the weather - and climate indicators show that over the past few decades, southern Australia has become drier, and droughts are becoming more frequent. 

Got it… What are some of the impacts of droughts?
The financial and social impacts can be devastating for farmers and rural communities, and they can also have a knock-on effect on the wider economy.

How do they affect the economy?
Let’s start with farmers… The drought is really starting to pinch in rural areas. And when money gets tight, people spend less. In prolonged cases, this can lead to businesses failing, higher unemployment and mental health issues in the regions. This year, the dairy industry has been particularly hard-hit - it’s had a double-whammy with some farmers in NSW copping the floods while others in southern NSW, Victoria and South Australia are dealing with the drought.

What measures are they having to take?
There have been reports of dairy farmers offloading record numbers of cattle through livestock auctions, and the number of sheep and cattle sent to abattoirs for slaughter is up 20% on last year. The Bureau of Stats said that it was the largest quarterly cattle slaughter in Victoria since 1979, and the largest in NSW in a decade. But the effects of the drought are also coming for people living in our cities…

How so?
With higher prices for feed, diminished stock and strong demand, the prices of staples like milk, butter and other dairy products, as well as fresh meat, some grains and veggies, are about to jump. EastAUSMilk president Joe Bradley told The Age newspaper he thinks “the whole eastern seaboard is going to feel the shortage of milk and dairy products” and that “prices have to rise”.

Speaking of, how much do natural disasters cost us as a nation?
The latest Treasury figures estimate that the loss of economic activity from natural disasters this year alone will be $2.2 billion. That’s billion with a b… 

That’s a lot of b-ananas…
It sure is… So, all of this has both farmers and industry bodies calling on the federal and state governments for help.

What has the response been?
Disaster relief grants have been given out by the NSW and Queensland governments for flood victims - remember there was also flooding from Cyclone Alfred earlier in the year… And the South Oz and Victorian governments, as well as the federal government, have announced drought assistance packages. But there’s a growing call for another look at a national approach for how to plan for and manage drought conditions when they happen.

What will that do?
The idea is to better protect our farmers and cover them when times get tough. At the moment there are low-interest loans available which are meant to help farmers plan for drought conditions, but many say they don’t help much with emergency cash flow when crops and stock are wiped out… 

Can weather experts predict when the drought is likely to break?
Unfortunately, it’s not an exact science… If they could, it’d make planning a lot easier for farmers and the government. But there is some hope on the horizon. The latest BoM forecasts show that there could be a wetter spring in store for southern Australia.

Enough to break the drought?
Again, not sure… The BoM says the big cloudbands that’ve been missing from weather maps over our southern half are about to make a comeback, and its latest modelling shows a swing towards above-average rainfall after August and into September, so some relief could be on the way - but it’ll need to be heavy and persistent to break the effects of months of drought.

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Onto our Recommendations

Reading: This ⁠ABC article⁠ goes into those rainfall forecasts and some other signs that relief could be on the way.

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