Squiz Shortcuts - Myanmar's Civil War

Your Shortcut to… Myanmar’s civil war

A major earthquake has struck Myanmar, but as rescuers try to reach people in the rubble, the military has continued to carry out airstrikes against pro-democracy groups in a civil war that started in 2021. So in this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll cover:

• the background to the conflict

• who’s involved

• and how the relationship between the US and Russia could impact the country’s future

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Squiz the Shortcut

How bad was the earthquake in Myanmar?
At 7.7 magnitude, it was the most powerful earthquake in more than a century. It struck the centre of the country near its second-largest city of Mandalay, and it caused the widespread destruction of buildings, roads and bridges. At least 2,000 people have died after being trapped under rubble, and thousands more have been injured.

How much of the country is impacted?
A state of emergency has been declared in 6 regions around the epicentre of the quake, but the tremors were felt right throughout SE Asia. 

Were any other countries affected?
Yep. Over 1,000kms away in Thailand’s capital city, Bangkok, a 30-storey building that was under construction collapsed. The death toll from that site, where many of the workers were migrants from Myanmar, is at least 18 people, with 30 reported injured, and more than 80 others thought to be trapped, so the toll is expected to rise there too.

Where exactly is Myanmar?
You might remember it used to be called Burma… It sits between Thailand and Laos to the east and Bangladesh to the west, and to its north is China. 

Who runs things there?
The country is run by a military junta - aka a military or political group that rules a country after taking power by force. It overthrew the democratic government in a coup, which sparked a civil war. And while rescue efforts go on, there have been reports that the military has continued to carry out airstrikes against pro-democracy groups in areas affected by the quake. 

How long has the war been going on?
Since the 2021 coup. The name Aung San Suu Kyi might ring a bell - she’s a big part of this story… She was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts to bring democracy to Myanmar. Her party, the National League for Democracy, was elected in 2015 after she’d been put under house arrest for nearly 15 years by the ruling military.

That’s a long time to be housebound…
It is, and even though she won, she wasn’t allowed to become president because her children were foreign nationals. Instead, she served as the foreign minister and state counsellor, and there was a shared power arrangement between the NLD and the military - an arrangement that was often fraught.

Did she ever get to lead?
Not officially - in 2020, after her party won another landslide victory, she was accused by the military of illegally importing communications equipment and was arrested. The military essentially took control of the country in the coup of 2021, and that triggered huge protests.

Who was protesting?
Thousands of people marched in the streets to demand that civilian rule be restored. It mostly began as a peaceful demonstration, but it soon escalated into an all-out conflict between the military on one side and pro-democracy and ethnic rebel groups on the other… A civil war.

What’s happened since?
A lot, but to give you the top lines - more than 6,000 people have been killed, 29,000 have been arrested, and more than 3.3 million have been displaced. As for Aung San Suu Kyi, she’s since been moved from prison back to house arrest… And while the war has continued, Myanmar’s ruling military junta has forged an alliance with Russia, which has helped to supply it with arms.

How friendly are they?
Very. Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing has visited Russia 4 times since the coup, and on his last visit, he granted Russia rights to mine minerals and build an oil refinery and a port. The 2 countries also work together on defence and take part in naval exercises together, and Russia is the main supplier of weapons for the Myanmar military in the civil war. 

How is that going for the military?
Not very well so far… A BBC investigation into the civil war has shown that after 4 years, the military controls less than a quarter of the country. The area of last Friday’s earthquake is now mostly under the control of pro-democracy and resistance groups, who control around 42% of the country's land, while a lot of the remaining area is contested. 

What’s their main way of attacking?
The military is increasingly relying on air attacks to try to get the upper hand, and the indiscriminate bombings, which have struck hospitals, schools and monasteries, have killed many civilians - leading to a UN investigation into human rights violations. The military support from Russia and China has made those killings possible. 

And what about the other side?
It has been supported by the US, but that assistance is now looking shaky, because of the Trump administration’s pause on international aid and its renewed friendliness with Russia… The US Agency for International Development is the department that previously funded assistance to Myanmar, but it’s been stripped of staff and funding. And then there’s President Trump’s broader aim to get Putin to agree to a peace deal with Ukraine, which could also have a bearing on America’s policies in Myanmar.

Go on…
One test of that will come later this year when the military says it’ll run elections in Myanmar - a big question mark is hanging over whether the US will endorse them or not. And another thing further complicating the situation is that experts say China is also increasingly throwing its support behind the military, which they say could tip the balance in the war. 

Where does that leave things?
Very much up in the air… But right now, as the people deal with a fresh humanitarian crisis brought on by the earthquake, the pro-democracy movement has issued a statement to say it would begin an immediate pause to fighting in areas affected - and they’re waiting to see if the military will follow suit… And that’s our shortcut to Myanmar’s civil war. 

Onto our Recommendations

Watching:  The movie The Lady tells the story of Aung San Suu Kyi - you can rent it on YouTube or Apple TV.

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