Is the US going to war with Venezuela?

Is the US going to war with Venezuela?

For the past few months, the US Navy has been deploying warships to the Caribbean Sea off the coast of Venezuela. Those ships have carried out several deadly strikes against what the US says are boats operated by drug cartels. So in this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll get you across:

• what’s led to this situation

• and what could be next…

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Listen to Andrew Williams and Claire Kimball cover this topic in this Squiz Shortcut podcast episode, or check it out on YouTube - and hit subscribe while you’re at it.

Listen time: 12 minutes

Squiz the Shortcut

Let’s start with where this is happening in the world - remind me where Venezuela is?
It’s the country at the top of South America, to the east of Colombia. To its north is the Caribbean Sea, where the US has been sending warships since September.

How many warships are we talking about?
At last count, there were between 12 and 15 US Navy ships positioned within striking distance of Venezuela. That includes the world’s largest warship, the USS Gerald R Ford, carrying 4,000 sailors and dozens of aircraft. All up, there are between 12,000 and 15,000 sailors and marines gathered in the region. 

What are they doing there?
US President Donald Trump says it’s part of a military operation to crack down on the flow of illegal drugs into America via boats operated by Venezuelan drug cartels. 

What sort of drugs?
Trump has mentioned cocaine and fentanyl, although reports say Venezuela isn’t a known corridor for fentanyl. And the drugs coming in by boat represent a tiny portion of the overall illegal drug trade, which mainly goes through Mexico.

Have the US warships done anything?
Yep, they’ve carried out strikes against more than a dozen alleged drug boats under the banner of Operation Southern Spear, which US Secretary of War (formerly Secretary of Defense) Pete Hegseth says is aimed at stemming the flow of illegal drugs into the US and removing “narco-terrorists” from the northern hemisphere… 

Has anyone died in the strikes?
At least 83 people are said to have been killed. The strikes have drawn backlash from the international community, particularly from legal and human rights groups, who say there’s been very little information about the targets or the drug trafficking cartels they allegedly were part of.

Where does the United Nations stand?
The UN’s Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk says the actions of the US violate international law and amount to "extrajudicial killings", meaning American officials haven’t followed due course before attacking. So, as you might imagine, after all of this, tensions between the 2 countries have been ramping up, and political analysts watching it unfold are asking questions about what the US’s motive really is.

What’s the Venezuelan Government saying?
It hasn’t taken kindly to being surrounded and having its citizens and their ships blown up. The country’s President, Nicolás Maduro, says the strikes are an act of provocation that threatens regional peace. But the US isn’t too bothered by that… 

Why not?
It believes Maduro is running a corrupt, authoritarian regime that’s in cahoots with criminal networks. And it doesn’t recognise his government - in fact, it’s offering a US$50 million reward for information leading to his arrest. 

Why doesn’t it recognise Maduro’s government?
This is a story that starts well before this standoff with the US Navy… So, Venezuela is technically a democracy, and Maduro assumed power in 2013 after the death of the prior President Hugo Chávez - so he was Chávez’s anointed successor. When election time rolled around, he scraped through with a very narrow margin. But in the 2 subsequent elections, he’s been accused of rigging the outcomes.

Just explain that a bit more…
He’s accused of buying votes and banning opposition candidates like this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, Maria Corina Machado, from running against him. He’s also barred international observers from watching vote counts to verify that elections are fair. As a result, the US, Canada, and many South American countries have withdrawn recognition of the Maduro Government. 

Wasn’t there a possibility that Trump could’ve won the Nobel Peace Prize this year?
There was talk of it, but it was won by Machado. And because there were a lot of eyes on the outcome, it’s drawn a heap of attention to the work she’s been doing there, along with the plight of Venezuelan people, and what’s going on in their country.

What’s been going on in Venezuela?
While Maduro has been in power, the country’s economy has collapsed. Reports say it’s contracted by 80% between 2013 and 2021 through economic mismanagement. And even though Venezuela is sitting on vast oil reserves, an estimated 51% of the population of 28 million people are now living in poverty…

How bad is it?
Really bad… There are widespread food shortages, regular power outages, people are struggling to access clean drinking water, and the prices of basic items have gone through the roof due to hyperinflation (caused by the government printing excessive amounts of money to fund its spending). The hospitals over there are also in a state, with medicine shortages and understaffed wards. This has all led to a mass exodus of people from the country…

How many people have left?
Reports say nearly 7 million people have left the country over the past decade - many of them illegally to the US, which as we know, has cracked down on immigration under Trump. And all of this feeds back into why the US is taking such a hard line against Maduro’s regime. There’s also another reason…

What’s that?
So, along with the drug boats and the illegal immigrants, political analysts say removing Maduro in favour of a leader friendlier to the US would also be another check on the influence of Russia and China in the region. Both are key allies and trade partners of Venezuela, with Russia supplying it with military equipment, fighter jets and missiles, and China providing it with billions of dollars in loans under its Belt and Road initiative. 

So, why have things dialled up in the past week?
It relates back to some serious accusations levelled at Maduro by the Trump Administration, including that he’s complicit in drug trafficking… They say he’s the leader of a cartel known as Cartel de los Soles (or Cartel of the Suns in English). 

I haven’t heard of that one…
Experts in Latin American narcotics groups say it’s not so much an organised outfit, but rather a loose term for generals corrupted by drug money. Regardless, this week, the US flagged that it would add the cartel to a list of FTOs, which includes Tren de Aragua and the Sinaloa Cartel. 

What are those cartels accused of?
The US says they’re responsible for “terrorist violence” and trafficking drugs into the United States and Europe. But listing Maduro as the head of an FTO would elevate him and the cartel to a national security threat against the US…

What does that mean?
It’s given a date of November 24th for that listing, which gives Maduro something of an ultimatum. In the past, he’s denied having any links to drug organisations, and he says the US is trying to incite a war to get control of the country’s oil reserves. But if he goes on that FTO list as the head of a cartel, experts say the US could strike against targets on land under that national security guise, just as they’ve been doing with the boats… 

So, what’s the end game for the US?
Good question - it’s why so many people are watching what will happen next. The US has dialled up the pressure even more this week with Trump saying he’s not ruling out sending troops into Venezuela, but he also added that he’s willing to have a discussion with Maduro… 

Has Maduro responded?
Yep… Reports say Maduro is also ready to talk face-to-face. Trump’s intentions are still not super clear, but things are unfolding fast, so watch this space…

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Onto our Recommendations

Listening: This episode of The Daily podcast by The New York Times called Is the US Trying to Oust the Government in Venezuela? gives a good overview of what the US’ strategy could be…

Reading: This article from CNN goes a bit deeper into the Cartel de los Soles and why it’s more of an idea than an organisation.

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