Australia's climate summit showdown

Australia’s climate summit showdown

Australia’s climate goals are set to be in the news again with the Albanese Government preparing to announce a new emissions reduction target. The position we take could impact our chances of hosting the UN’s COP31 climate summit next year, which would be the first one held in the Pacific. But our bid is facing some challenges… So in this Squiz Shortcut, we’ll get you across:

• our climate targets

• where our COP31 bid is up to

• and why hosting the summit matters…

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Squiz the Shortcut

Why is the topic of our climate target heating up again?
It’s because the federal government is due to announce a new goal for 2035 to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. The target is set roughly every 5 years under the Paris Climate Agreement.

Remind me about the Paris Agreement…
Sure… It’s a treaty between 195 countries, including Australia, who’ve committed to reducing their output of harmful greenhouse gas emissions to stop global warming. The aim is to keep the average global temperature rise well below 2°C (from pre-industrial levels) and to try to limit it to 1.5°C.

Got it… What’s our climate target in Oz?
At the moment, our target is a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. And the broader goal is to get to net zero emissions by 2050 - that’s where the amount of greenhouse gas emissions we produce are offset by the amount we remove from the atmosphere. 

How are we going with it?
The latest figures show we’re on track to meet the 2030 goal. We’ve cut emissions by nearly a third since 2005, which is a big shift, but there’s still some way to go to achieve net zero… Energy figures from last year show we relied on coal and gas for around 64% of our power. 

What’s the plan to get there?
The government wants to reduce our use of fossil fuels even further and to replace them with renewable sources of energy like solar, hydro, battery and wind - while also managing to keep the lights on... So, there’s a lot riding on the next target we set for 2035.

What’s that target likely to be?
The Climate Change Authority - that’s the Australian body that advises the government on these things - is expected to recommend a much more ambitious goal of between 65 and 75%. For context, a target like that would put us near the front of the pack globally. And the timing matters…

Why is timing important?
Well, the government is expected to announce the new target in the lead-up to the UN General Assembly leaders’ summit in New York later this month. That’s a big meeting between the world’s movers and shakers, and political commentators say it’s where PM Anthony Albanese will be looking to lock in support for Australia’s bid to host the UN’s climate summit next year.

What’s that called?
It’s formally called COP31 and it stands for the 31st Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - so we’ll just call it COP31. It’s a big name, and it’d be a big deal for us to host…  

Why does Australia want to host?
If we won the bid, we’d do so in partnership with the Pacific Islands. And as we mentioned, it’d be the first time the summit has been held in the Pacific - a region that’s hugely susceptible to the effects of climate change.

What are some of the challenges Pacific Island nations are facing?
Warming temperatures, rising sea levels and stronger cyclones are all threats to the survival of some Pacific Islands; that’s how critical the issue of climate change is for them. So, climate advocates say that having as many as 40,000 delegates including world leaders, scientists, and experts see and hear about the issues up close would be invaluable. And our bid to host really hinges on that partnership. But for us, it’d be beneficial on a few additional levels…

What are those?
Australia standing with our Pacific neighbours on climate change would send a strong message to investors in renewables that we’re serious about tackling the issue, and it’d help shore up diplomatic relations with our neighbours that are being increasingly tested by China. And we’ve put Adelaide forward as the city to host, so it’d also mean millions of dollars injected into the economy for South Oz - and possibly more on a national level.

Tell me more about that…
Economists say that if the government can point to strong emissions targets, it’s more likely to attract global investment into those industries, so there’s big money at stake. 

Who’s hosting the summit this year?
This year’s COP30 (30 because it’s the 30th one) is being hosted in the Brazilian city of Belém in November. That’s when a decision has to be made about where the next one will be held. There’s a lot of support among UN members for the ‘Pacific COP’ but as we mentioned, there are some hurdles to clear… 

What’s in the way?
The first issue is that there’s political division over our climate targets at home. The Nationals’ backbencher Barnaby Joyce wants to scrap the net zero plan altogether, and reports say he has some support in the Coalition’s ranks. And on a state level, the Queensland Liberal National Party has resolved to formally dump the target.

How might that affect things?
The energy transition and the push for renewables is a key part of the federal government’s policy platform, but without a strong emissions target the whole plan could fall over… Our climate intentions won’t be as credible in the eyes of the UN, our bid to host COP31 will be weaker, and a half-hearted approach could also spook investors. But aside from domestic wobbles, there’s another challenge…

What’s that?
Turkey is also in the running to host COP31, and it’s refusing to bow out of the race. 

When you say ‘race’, how does the selection process for hosting work?
Great question… COP conferences aren’t awarded by a vote or a bidding process, like the Olympics, for example. It’s more of a last-one-standing system. Basically, countries put their hand up to host, and then behind the scenes there’s a lot of diplomatic wrangling until everyone drops out, except one. And for COP31, it’s between Australia (in partnership with the Pacific), and Turkey…

Didn’t you say we had a lot of UN support?
We do; we also have strong backing from the Pacific, the EU and lots of climate groups who want the Pacific COP to happen. And experts say Turkey doesn’t have those numbers, but they’re hanging on, regardless…

What’s driving their bid?
The Turkish First Lady Emine Erdoğan - a climate activist - is pushing hard to host in the city of Antalya. She argues that her country is more geographically central for COP delegates, and that it’s not a major coal and gas exporter so their climate credentials are better. But even if that’s the case, the UN hasn’t exactly been supportive of Turkey’s bid and technically, it’s the Asia-Pacific region’s turn, so the expectation has been that it’d eventually bow out. 

Where does that leave us?
Our government officials have been trying through diplomatic channels to get their Turkish counterparts to step aside, with no luck so far… And we’re getting down to crunch time. So there’s pressure building on the Albanese Government to get on the front foot and firm up the deal ASAP… But while that’s happening, South Oz has another problem (on top of Adelaide stressing about needing to be prepared for a major event like COP). 

What’s that?
This is all coming as the state deals with a toxic algal bloom around its coast. We’re pitching for a global environmental summit at the same time fish are washing up dead and people are being warned not to swim in the beaches. Both the state and federal governments are working on solving the issue - but it’s still a major problem and the optics aren’t great…

So, what happens if Turkey doesn’t back down?
If that’s the case, neither of our countries will host and the summit will move instead to the compromise choice of Bonn in Germany. Watch this space…

Yikes - there’s a lot going on…
Yep, so climate targets are likely to be front and centre in the news for a while yet.

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Onto our Recommendations

Watching: David Attenborough’s documentary Ocean which shows the issues being faced by the Pacific Islands due to the effects of climate change. You can find it on Disney+…

Reading: This piece in The Conversation - we’re on a roll with them. It’s called No room for the timid: setting Australia’s 2035 emissions target is a daring tightrope act and it gives a good overview of the investment dollars hinging on the 2035 climate target…

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