A change at the top in the UK

A change at the top in the UK

Britain is about to get its seventh Prime Minister in 10 years after the resignation of Labour’s Keir Starmer. The man tipped to replace him is former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, the country’s newest MP, who won a crucial by-election last week over his main competition from the far-right Reform UK party. So in this Squiz Shortcut we’ll look at:

• What went wrong for Starmer

• What Burnham’s promising

• And how things stand in the UK a decade after Brexit…

🙋🏻‍♀️ This newsletter was written by Larissa Huntington and Sophie Felice

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Squiz the Shortcut

Let’s take it back a few steps… Why has Keir Starmer resigned as PM?
It might seem sudden, but pressure has been building on Starmer to step down for months… He led Labour to a huge majority nearly 2 years ago after 14 years of Conservative rule, but since then his popularity has nosedived. The biggest warning sign came in local elections earlier this year, where Labour lost almost 1,500 councillors, lost power in Wales which used to be a stronghold, and recorded its worst result ever in elections for the Scottish Parliament. And it’s not just voters who've been unhappy…

Who else wanted him out?
Close to 100 Labour MPs had publicly called on him to either resign or at least set out a timeline for leaving. There was division inside the party over some of his policy decisions which upset core Labour voters - things like cutting the Winter Fuel Payment (that’s an annual, tax-free cash allowance given by the UK government to help older people with their heating bills). He also tightened up sickness and welfare benefits, raised taxes on small businesses and pushed through hardline immigration reforms.

What was that about?
That was in response to the rise in popularity of Nigel Farage’s far-right party Reform UK which has been leading political polls in Britain. It has a staunch anti-immigration policy and it’s been drawing voters away from Labour, pointing to immigration as placing a massive strain on public services. If it’s ringing some bells, it’s the same sort of campaign One Nation has been using to gain traction here in Oz… If you want to know a bit more about Reform UK - and also why Starmer’s win back in 2024 was considered widespread but shallow - we’ve got a Squiz Shortcut on Reform UK that’s really helpful… 

What else was Starmer facing heat over?
He was also under fire for appointing Peter Mandelson - who had ties to the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and was one of several high-profile figures named in the Epstein files - as Britain’s ambassador to the US. Starmer says he wasn’t fully aware of the depth of their association when Mandelson was appointed, but he knew he posed a reputational risk to the government, so the optics weren’t great. 

So who’s in line to take over as PM?
There were a couple of names in the mix looking to challenge Starmer, like the former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, but under Labour rules, a challenger needs to have the signatures of 20% (81 MPs) to formally trigger a leadership contest, and it hasn’t ended up happening. One man who had enough support was the former Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham. But there was a problem…

What was that?
Burnham wasn’t an MP, which is required if you’re going to be the PM. So back in May, the sitting member for the seat of Makerfield, Josh Simons, resigned to make way for Burnham to run in the by-election. That happened on Thursday in the UK and he won the seat convincingly with 54.8% of the vote. It was considered as a test of how he’d go against Reform UK, and political analysts are taking the victory as proof that Burnham can reconnect with voters who’ve been abandoning Labour.

Tell me more about Burnham…
He’s not a new face in British politics by any stretch. He was an MP for 16 years, serving under Labour PMs Tony Blair and Gordon Brown (he was Health Secretary in Brown’s cabinet) - and he’s already had a tilt at the leadership twice, but wasn’t successful. Since 2017 he’s been the Mayor of Greater Manchester and it’s there that he’s really become popular. 

Go on…
He's even known as the ‘King of the North’ which is a nod to Game of Thrones for anyone not familiar with the Starks or Winterfell, and it’s because he’s built up a reputation as a straight talker who isn’t afraid to stand up to the government (even one led by his own party) and fight for funding for his northern constituents - many of whom are seen as working class. 

That brings us neatly to what he’s promising…
Burnham wants to reset the party back to delivering for working families because it had been seen to be veering over into Conservative territory. In light of that, he’s pledged not to raise income tax or VAT, which is like our GST. He also wants the government to have more control over utilities like water, energy and public transport systems, and he plans to replace inheritance tax with a national levy to help fund aged care. 

Speaking of, what will he be inheriting if he takes the reins as PM?
Political analysts say he’ll be taking over a country that’s as divided along ideological lines over the economy, national identity and immigration as it was when 51.9% of the population voted to leave the European Union in what’s known as Brexit. Fun fact: the 10-year anniversary of the referendum is today… 

What’s the consensus about Brexit, a decade on?
There isn’t one - there are just as many arguments raging about it in the media and public arena as there were in 2016… But starting with the economy, the Bank of England says Britain’s economy is 6% smaller than it would have been had it stayed in the EU - largely because trade with Europe has become more complicated and productivity has suffered. And polling suggests more than half of Britons now think leaving the European Union was a mistake - there’s even an official term for it: ‘Bregret’... 

What’s the counterargument?
Supporters of Brexit argue it’s impossible to prove that leaving the EU is to blame for the shrinking economy. They’ve pointed out Covid and rising energy/fuel prices as a result of the war in Ukraine, as well as the more recent Iran war, have also played a part. All of that to say, cost of living pressures haven’t gone anywhere and that’s been fueling public frustration and feeding into support for Reform, whose leader Nigel Farage was one of the loudest voices pushing for Brexit…

So what happens now that Starmer has resigned?
Burnham’s been sworn in as an MP and he’s announced his intention to run for leader. If no one else puts their hat in the ring, he could be announced as Britain’s new PM within the next month, in time for parliament to resume after the summer break. And if that’s how the chips fall, there’ll be a lot of people watching to see whether he’ll be able to swing support back in Labour’s direction and stop the rise of Reform UK… 

Onto our Recommendations

Reading: This article in the New York Times about Andy Burnham - it’s a gift link so it’s a freebie…

Watching: The movie Brexit: The Uncivil War. It stars Benedict Cumberbatch as prominent supporter of the Leave vote, Dominic Cummings, and it takes a look at the behind-the-scenes tactics of that campaign in the Brexit referendum. You can find it on Stan.

Starting the day with a fresh face

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